Could North Korea collapse? Scenario mapping futures for the DPRK with Ben Habib

Edge Dwellers Café

In this solo episode of the Edge Dwellers Café Podcast, Ben Habib maps out five broad potential scenarios for the future of the Kim regime in North Korea—(1) state failure and collapse; (2) managed systemic reform; (3) popular uprising and revolution; (4) coup d'état; and (5) externally-imposed regime change—critically evaluating the logic and probability of each scenario and consider the probability of each. This podcast is a teaser for a larger twelve-part video lecture series from Ben's undergraduate subject “Contemporary Politics of Northeast Asia: North Korea."

00:00:00 Introduction.

00:05:31 What happens now in North Korea?

00:06:59 Scenario mapping and the folly of prediction.

00:11:38 Scenario #1: State failure and collapse.

00:14:56 Levels of state decay in the DPRK.

00:17:27 Fragile North Korea 'muddled through'.

00:19:13 Scenario #2: Managed systemic reform.

00:21:34 Lessons for North Korea case from USSR, China and Vietnam.

00:25:37 Piecemeal adjustments to economic management.

00:28:21 Scenario #3: Popular uprising and revolution.

00:31:03 A North Korean spring: Comparing the DPRK with Arab Spring Egypt.

00:42:45 Scenario #4: Coup d'état.

00:43:28 The Kim regime's coup-proofing strategies.

00:46:05 Under what conditions might a coup occur?

00:48:48 Scenario #5: Externally-imposed regime change.

00:50:23 Unacceptable risks associated with attacking North Korea.

00:52:44 Why does the future of the Kim regime matter to regional states.

00:55:59 Lecture summary.

00:58:22 Conclusion.

Show Links

• Ben Habib. “Subject Video Content: Contemporary Politics of North Korea.” Ben@Earth.
• Andy Jackson. (2018) “Why Has There Been No People’s Power Rebellion in North Korea?” European Journal of Korean Studies. 18(1), pp. 1-34.
• Gijs Verbossen, Senior lecturer at University of Amsterdam.
• Victor Cha. “A North Korean Spring?” Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. YouTube. 15 June 2012.
• “Pangapsumnida”. YouTube.
• Victor Cha and Nicholas Anderson. (2012) “A North Korean Spring?” The
• Washington Quarterly, 35(1), pp. 7-24.
• Bruce Cumings. (2013) “Why Did So Many Influential Americans Think North Korea Would Collapse?” North Korean Review. 9(1), pp. 114–120.
• Nicholas Eberstadt and other articles cited in lecture…
• Bruce Bennett and Jennifer Lind. (2011) “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements.” International Security, 36(2), pp. 84–119.
• Daniel Byman and Jennifer Lind. (2010) “Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea. International Security. 35(1), pp. 44–74.
• Mark Fitzpatrick. (2013) “North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 55(3), pp. 7-20.
• Francis Grice. (2017) “The Improbability of Popular Rebellion in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Policy Alternatives for the USA.” Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 4(3), pp. 263-293.
• Kent Harrington and Bennett Ramberg. (2014) “The United States and South Korea: Who Does What if the North Fails?” The Washington Quarterly. 37(3), pp. 183–197.
• Kim Kyung-Won. (2005) “Downfall Delayed: Endgames for the North Korean regime.” Harvard International Review. 27(3), pp. 56-59.
• Marcus Noland. (1997) “Why North Korea will muddle through.” Foreign Affairs. 76(4), pp. 105-118.
• Tara O. (2016) The Collapse of North Korea: Challenges, Planning and Geopolitics of Unification. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit. (2009) Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea. Washington DC: Council on Foreign Relations.
• The Korea Society. “Three Futures: North Korea and the Korean Peninsula.” 6 December 2022.
• Ben Habib. (2022). “North Korea’s flurry of missile tests raises alarm – but are we seeing anything new?” The Conversation. 7 November 2022.
• Ben Habib. (2022). “North Korea careens from floods to drought, straining an already fragile system.” NK Pro. 22 June 2022.
• Jay Song and Ben Habib. (2020). “Typhoons and Human Insecurity in North Korea.” The Diplomat. 21 October 2020.

About Ben Habib, host of Edge Dwellers Cafe

• Ben@Earth: https://drbenjaminhabib.com/
• LTU staff profile: https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/bhabib
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrBenjaminHabib
• Mastodon: https://aus.social/@DrBenjaminHabib
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2oPQqZhJ8CAPbNqIDlf8_g
• ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3087-4828

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This podcast is broadcast from Naarm/Melbourne on the unceded lands of the Wurundjeri people. Edge Dwellers Cafe pays respect to their elders past and present.