JWRacing

horseracing – JWRacing

James Welsh, UK and US horseracing investment strategist.
I have profited from horse race betting for over 30 years, all bets fully proofed.
I beat the bookie and so can YOU!

Listen to to my Podcast where I detail my methods and strategies plus the key fundamentals that never change:

https://jimwelshuk.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/beatthebookie_podcast1.mp3

Beat the Bookie – Episode 2 – Consolidation of the Fundamentals, Pace and Trip Handicapping, Horses to follow and add to tracker. :

https://jimwelshuk.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/beatthebookie_podcastep2.mp3

If you are going to become a horse racing bettor, it is necessary to make the distinction between punters who gamble and those who bet. Gambling is playing games of pure chance with no possibility of predicting long-term results. Examples the National Lottery, Fruit Machines, online Casino games etc. Betting is all about odds. Neither bookies nor the punters know the true odds. Bookies are in competition, so their odds on offer differ and the odds can change quickly as punters place their bets. If you are a Gambler please leave now If you want to become a more professional bettor and learn how to beat the bookie on a long term basis then listen on.
Horseracing gives us the opportunity to assess the odds on offer and make an accurate assessment of the risk and return equation and only bet when the return or the likelihood of success is particularly attractive. There is now a vast amount of information available to computer literate punters from which to assess the risk element. We can use previous results, statistics, trends etc, to enable us to ascertain which variables work at influencing the results of races. These variables can then be applied to future races.

Don’t surround yourself with negative people who say the bookie always wins, they don’t and I’ve proved it!

If you’re knowledgeable, employ professional methods, exercise patience and discipline then you’ll make long term profit. You need to see yourself as an entrepreneur whose business is horse race betting not a gambler.

There are some excellent punters who get lots of winners but they don’t make money, some don’t even know if they are winning or losing! This is down to money management and being honest about your betting, you need to have a staking plan and record of all your bets. I use a spreadsheet and update it daily, analyse it and look for what you are good at and not, Flat, All-Weather, Jumps, Turf, Dirt, you’ll quickly identify a pattern, cut out the bad ‘fun’ or action bets’, there is no fun in losing,
Betting in the ‘get-out stakes’ there is no last race, it all starts again the next day.
The best bets you make are the ones you don’t make.
Before placing a bet set aside, a sum of money, which you can afford and is separate from the remainder of your assets and create a bank account solely for betting purposes, your Betting Bank. As an example, the account could be £1,000 and you bet win only singles staking £50 each time. If you double your betting bank, then double your stake. If and hopefully not, you half your bank account then half your stake. Following this method will allow you to sustain any long losing run.

So, how do it I do it?

I never read a trade paper or newspaper tipsters, they are journalists not profession bettors, don’t be influenced by these people or TV presenters, they don’t put where money where their mouth is.
Don’t take tips from stables as they are biased to their own horses and don’t take a subjective view.
You need something unique that the bookies and other punters don’t have access to that is your own racehorse ratings, I call mine POWER’ ratings.
.

Every horse has an official rating and I use this as an initial base figure, what we have to work out is what horses are massively under rated, progressive and are potential future bets

There are many variables that I use to adjust the base figure, my notes, from watching all relevant races and reading the race reports on each horse’s previous track and trips that had biases, for example., was the horses finishing position assisted or negatively impacted by a the draw, post position, look at the results you can see if the first 3 home all came from a group of either low or high stalls indicating a strong draw bias or had favourable trip during the race such as being on the lead of a walking pace with slow times for the early furlongs, you possibly might even note a combination of both, I will make either a positive or negative points adjustment to the base figure to start my horses Power rating.
This is why I mentioned earlier you need to specialise, watch and read race report daily, updating your records, its time consuming and hard work but you’ll get an edge and the rewards are worth it.
To understand track, trip basis and sport future winners you have to review the racing each day. Allocate at least one-hour race analysis time each evening to watch all the relevant replays, as I’ve said there is so many races and horses you need to specialise or you won’t have time to cover everything.
One other thing to look out for when watching race replays is watch after the winning post, some horses finishing full of running and carry on galloping past horses, I take a positive note of this, alternatively some will stop dead right after the line, this is a negative, it’s had a hard race and will be opposable next time particularly if turned out quick. In general, I want to see a horse over taking as they are herd animals not all want to be leaders, some no matter how well they travel through a race they will never go past the leader.
Always bet winners.

A key variable is CLASS. If the horse is racing in same race type class or even better lower after being dropped in the official ratings due to a ‘hidden’ bad performance then that’s a positive addition to the figure, if stepping up in class be wary, although it could be progressive and improving, every horse has a race class ceiling. How many horses win a Group 1 race, very few!
One thing that is a must, any potential bets POWER rating must be increasing, I will only bet improving horses never one with a steep declining POWER rating, horses have lots of physical ailments and can loss their from quickly, forget this nonsense about horses a stone lower than last winning mark so they are well handicapped, there is usually a reason and it’s gone at the game.
My final adjustment to the Power rating is fitness. I look for a pattern, some horses need time between their races and run best fresh while others stay in form only for a short time of the year. I use a 35-day rule, any absence longer than this and there might have been a problem. You want a fit and in-form horse.
Now you have the horses POWER ratings, you might find one that is well ahead on the figures for the race but you need to understand how the race is going to be run. I draw a picture of how I think the race will unfold, who’ll make the pace, how many will be on the front end, will it be extreme pace or a race with lone speed, who will try and close late. This way you will highlight any possible race trip bias, it also gives you great understanding of horse racing and makes you an expert handicapper.
Another crucial variable to mention is the jockey, horses have different styles of running, for example some are front runners, some have to ridden with restraint and come from off the pace so it is a help if a jockey knows these traits. Also, a mentioned earlier there are specialist All Weather tracks jockeys that go under the radar. It always surprises me when trainers remain faithful to a stable jockey’s when it’s blatantly obvious their riding style doesn’t suit an individual horses running style or they ride that particular track badly, a positive rider change bring out massive improvement.

After fully analysing a race, you have made your decision, you’ll back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any price, a winner is a winner. DON’T! Each horse’s true chance in a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and don’t take anything less. You always hear people talking about value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the odds you are prepared to take, is to list all the potential rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look for approximately 3/1 or better. You will soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds. Ideally you want to get to as level where you make your own ‘tissue’ and can easy spot bookmakers odds compliers mistakes and take advantage of them.

Hopefully you’ll now have an understanding of the time and effort you need to put in to become a successful horseplayer, it’s a great intellectual challenge and the rewards are worth it.