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Supplement 07 Jan 24 - here we go!

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Manage episode 407425500 series 3560038
Indhold leveret af Adam Lawrence. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Adam Lawrence eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.

This week's supplement goes into some Macro meat and then asks a question I don't hear anyone else asking - where are all these people going? What does this all mean for the future of the private rented sector?

Most importantly - what and where are the opportunities for 2024?

  continue reading

99 episoder

Artwork
iconDel
 
Manage episode 407425500 series 3560038
Indhold leveret af Adam Lawrence. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Adam Lawrence eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.

This week's supplement goes into some Macro meat and then asks a question I don't hear anyone else asking - where are all these people going? What does this all mean for the future of the private rented sector?

Most importantly - what and where are the opportunities for 2024?

  continue reading

99 episoder

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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes for the trifecta this week - an interesting but strange Hamptons report about the rental market - a fascinating piece about a Community Rent Model - and some musings on the “big debate” I was involved in this week. We also have, in the Macro section: (Un)employment - that week of the month. Weak? Confidence (or more accurately, lack thereof) The flash PMIs - my favourite real time indicator of economic health (or sickness) The gilts and swaps - a relatively idyllic week And in the deep dive...... Hamptons make sense of the English Housing Survey data alongside their own, particularly around the percentage of rent paid by people of a certain age. They also examine the effect of the withdrawal of the Help-to-Buy scheme The work and brainchild of a Labour councillor who did incredible work in Social Housing starts, but seems to have an answer that needs MUCH more airtime than it has received thus far. Hence the Supplement! My reflections on the debate I had this week with Samuel Leeds, property training business owner. This premieres after the Supplement goes to print and air, so there are no spoilers, don’t worry - you’ll have to watch it for that! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government! Enjoy…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the low and high pay report from the ONS - with some unreported but eye-opening headlines - and also takes a look at the 6-monthly ONS migration report in a significant level of detail We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - you know it - and downside misses on forecasts Growth, Growth, Growth - and the microscopes needed to find it The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report, always illuminating The gilts and swaps - and why last week’s advice not to panic has played out well, and will continue to do so in my view - with some bonus content here too And in the deep dive...... The ONS keeps on delivering interesting reports and I keep ploughing through them. How many people are now low paid in the UK as a percentage, using the official OECD definition? It looks great - why have we not been shouting about it from the rooftops? What about the high-paid - have we created those high-pay, high-skill jobs that were promised some time back by the guy with the hair? Then - migration - the most comprehensive look I’ve ever taken at this subject that defines the shape of the rental market in the UK for many years to come. Hopefully I’ve answered some questions that you might have been asking, and some you might not realise that you wanted to ask, but are interested in What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, you had a good week, keep driving those yields down - pretty please? Enjoy Learn more about the Sourcing Course: https://bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the household and national balance sheets - lifting the lid on how good, or bad, the UK finances as a whole truly are. As a bonus, we look at UK Finance’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 when it comes to lending, and specifically buy-to-let of course. We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index and their take on 2025 The Services and Construction PMI final prints for December and the Composite Index, with the bearish comments thrown in The Bank of England BBA Mortgage rate data and the decision maker panel forecasts for 2025 The gilts and swaps - and some real meat (remember to chew it well, you may want 2 or 3 reads of this section…..) about the yields and what’s really going on - and what it means, and why I’m not panicking. Yet And in the deep dive...... The ONS once a year - usually, in business as usual times - produce a Balance Sheet for the UK and establish “our” net worth - including the households as the primary holders of the vast majority of the wealth. How much is it? How did it move? How bankrupt - or not - is the UK? What’s it all made up of, anyway (I know you can guess what a very decent slug of it is made up of……) UK Finance - who have all the lender data - produce a detailed forecast of the key numbers in the mortgage market for 2025, including net lending, repossessions, arrears, and remortgaging (or lack of it, as there has been over recent years) What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, we need you to step up Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at: bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Resolution Foundation’s recent report “Housing Hurdles” gets the full treatment in the deep dive today. The Nationwide House Price Index and surprises or lack thereof The Manufacturing PMI final print for December and glum accompanying commentary The Bank of England Money and Credit report for November and the first backward step for a while - but, in context, of course The gilts and swaps - in another thin trading week, be careful…… And in the deep dive...... The Resolution Foundation made waves with their recent report because they chose a headline about how much home ownership had improved for millennials in the previous decade. This was no surprise to me as I follow the actual figures rather than the media hype - but there’s plenty of interest including their analysis and methodology right under the microscope this week, as I go into detail about how I think a really robust piece of work would go about making comparisons with 35 years ago. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - 1 down, 51 to go……. Enjoy Workshop tickets at https://bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Hamptons International weigh in with another couple of well-researched Property market reports Zoopla takes us into 2025 with their roundup of 2024 as they saw it The Macro roundup for the quarter from the ONS Business Investment - going well, for Q3 - fingers crossed Retail sales and a surprise for the fortunes of online retail, perhaps? The gilts and swaps - in a thin trading week, so be careful…… And in the deep dive...... Hamptons deep-dive into stamp duty, and the changes which are now 10 years old - and the changes coming again in April Hamptons December market update with predictions for next year and some useful stats on completions before the deadline Zoopla predict a 2.5% increase in capital growth for 2025 - with more transactions than 2024 as well And after all that - I reveal the first look at MY predictions for 2025 on all the important macro numbers - plus house prices and rents. How close will I get this time around….??? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On into 2025 - remember, even a stopped clock is right twice a day so some of the political decisions will go well next year! Enjoy BUY workshop tickets at bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Bank of England meeting minutes - in detail - as rates HOLD once more The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report and some records broken….. The real time market and how it is going - bringing it home for a year that will see 1.7 million homes hit the open market The Flash PMIs and the stark picture painted by the analysts The Jobs Report - what’s the direction of travel? Inflation, a rant, and the truth - no hype here The gilts and swaps - in a volatile week And in the deep dive...... The Bank votes 6-3 to hold the rate - why, and what’s troubling them. Who are the allies in getting that rate down!? The ONS private rents and house prices report - the truth for 2024 versus the negativity, and the hot - and not - regions of the UK What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On with Xmas - don’t let the incongruent politicians grind you down, have a good one! Enjoy BUY Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: FCA quarterly mortgage data - always enlightening. Zoopla’s rental market report - extremely well-balanced and full of decent info The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators, still Growth (or lack thereof) Consumer Confidence - doing well in the face of point one RICS and their residential market survey, which has finally caught up with reality, it is good to note The gilts and swaps - and another disappointing week, but another silver lining as well….. And in the deep dive...... An end to the trends seen in recent mortgage data, apart from one important one - the lack of buy-to-let new mortgages…… Zoopla’s rental index telling us what’s going on in real time in the rental market for new rents - with some very sensible predictions for the rental market over the coming years as well, alongside the real governors in that market. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - whilst Reform takes the lead in the polls, Labour keep talking about “reform” - when will they realise they need to change the narrative! Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbwfive Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix! Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel 🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast 🟣 https://propenomix.com/ Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below 🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/ #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The English Housing Survey is OUT - and I analyse the exec summary and chapter 1, in detail. Some “data surprises” in there! The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indices The BRC retail sales monitor - a car crash? Why? The PMIs - not QUITE as bad as the flash figures, but still miserable The gilts and swaps - a snap to end the run of down weeks, but how bad - or not - was it? And in the deep dive...... A geek smorgasbord of data as the English Housing Survey is released and I take a close look at the demographics, and breakdown across tenures - the data doesn’t find sensationalist headlines, and the story is “more of the same” to a large extent, with some surprising trends. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Kier has had a re-boot, when a lot of us would prefer he just got the boot - but be careful what you wish for, what’s waiting in the wings is not economic paradise but “lettuce part deux” if we are not careful…… Enjoy Workshop tickets for 16th Jan at: http://bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Zoopla’s predictions for 2025 - but how did they do for 2024? They don’t directly compare, so I do……. The real time market and how it is going - promising signs still Consumer and business confidence under the microscope The Retail Sales The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - how are mortgages going? What about household debt overall? The gilts and swaps - a better week again, keep these coming And in the deep dive...... Zoopla’s House Price Index including 2025 predictions The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee also published their Financial Stability Report - a detailed analysis of where we are sitting and what the stress test results look like. What to watch out for! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - The OBR has predicted 2% growth for 2025, and that looks extremely hopeful for the moment……but let’s stay positive and open-minded……. Enjoy…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Affordability - how bad is it, historically? How good (and timely) is the data? The real time market and how it is going - reasonably, is the answer Inflation numbers in detail The ONS private rents and house prices The PMIs - what’s the real time picture of economic activity? The gilts and swaps - a better week And in the deep dive...... The ONS affordability report on rentals, dissected in detail Zoopla’s most recent affordability report put side-by-side, with some decent analysis and interesting conclusions What’s the conversation that none of them dares to have? Find out… What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - let’s see this Stability that we keep hearing about……at the moment the only thing stable is the economic growth rate (at 0%)....... Enjoy…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Long term mortgage rates - what’s going to happen now? The real time market and how it is going Growth - or lack thereof The RICS residential market survey Unemployment - why the massive increase? The gilts and swaps - calmer waters And in the deep dive...... The Bank of England quarterly meeting regional report - and my input/interaction The Mansion House speech by the Chancellor - any good? My thoughts on growth in this parliament - perhaps better than you might be expecting….. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - let’s see this Stability that we keep hearing about…… Before I call it one more time, a reminder that tickets for the next Property Business Workshop are OUT - Thursday January 16th 2025 (Wowsers), with some great subject matter - planning, efficiencies, and also financial accounting and bookkeeping - not “how to use Xero” but how to ensure reporting is SET UP correctly and how to monitor it on an effective, ongoing, monthly basis. Come along and also get your strategic planning sorted out, and your January kick up the backside comes as part of the package as well! SUPER Early Bird tickets are available with a 25%+ face value discount on them - once they are gone they are gone, there are half a dozen or so left. These events DO sell out. Rod and I hope to see you there. Buy one here: http://bit.ly/pbwfive…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Rates were cut! But did you even notice, with the amount of noise. What does it mean for mortgage rates? The real time market and how it is going The Retail Sales Figures The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs finalised for October with some predictions, and jobs numbers The gilts and swaps - thankful for small wins? And in the deep dive...... The Quarterly Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - dissected The future of inflation, interest rates, unemployment, rents and house prices in 2025 and beyond - everything you need! A few words about “The Donald” - I had to……. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Stability beckons, if Geopolitics can hold on…….. Enjoy…
 
BUDGET SPECIAL - the most awaited economic and property analysis of the UK Budget from my Sunday Supplement on 3rd November 2024 The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? PLUS: The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Index The Manufacturing PMI and a little dip The gilts and swaps - black armband week, folks And in the deep dive...... The Employers’ National Insurance Contribution - what will happen? Stamp duty - a punch in the gut, or an opportunity? Most importantly of all - what do we do next? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Has Rachel earned her nickname of “Rachel Thieves”? You will decide…. Enjoy…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Index The Manufacturing PMI and a little dip The gilts and swaps - black armband week, folks And in the deep dive...... The Employers’ National Insurance Contribution - what will happen? Stamp duty - a punch in the gut, or an opportunity? Most importantly of all - what do we do next? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Has Rachel earned her nickname of “Rachel Thieves”? You will decide…. Enjoy…
 
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Halifax House Price index The RICS house price balance in detail - even the surveyors have woken up GDP Growth for August and September forecasts An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widening - and an addition to this section. And in the deep dive...... Rachel Reeves and infrastructure investment - and the UK’s investment in general - and some progress, we hope, but nervy bond markets The ONS reported this week on English and Welsh energy efficiency - the bits of the report you need to know and the implications. What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier, he’s too busy with Freebies Enjoy…
 
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