13: Forecasts for 2023: Scenarios, Systems, and Pattern Recognition

Onward, a Fundrise Production

Join your Onward co-hosts, Fundrise CEO Ben Miller and Cardiff Garcia, to wrap up 2022 in the same way we started it: with a session of scenario planning.
Ben and Cardiff each share their predictions for what the next year might bring, including possibilities that are both very likely and, admittedly, a little more far afield. We learn the premise and implications of the “80/20 rule” for inflation, what Ben means by the phrase “a recession incession,” and what it looks like when the stock market “PEGs down.” Beyond that, a quick review of the implications of The Great Deleveraging, the subject of our November 14 episode — less of a predication and more of a glimpse of the horizon, as Ben emphasizes that a financial liquidity crunch is already in motion, even if many players in the financial world aren’t ready to talk about it publicly.
But then, Ben has something a little more radical in store, as he introduces an entirely new framework of Scenario Planning for thinking about the future, based on an understanding and extrapolation of inorganic and organic systems. An inorganic system is made up of inanimate objects, while an organic system is composed of living entities. If a key component of success is pattern matching, then a common mistake is misreading the way a system is likely to behave.
Like a wild population of animals or insects that grows too fast, overwhelming its food sources and habitat, will we see a system’s sudden collapse? It all comes down to determining which economic trends follow a common biological pattern of a J-curve or an S-curve, and which have the potential to buck predictable trajectories entirely, like an evolutionary leap or a deadly mutation.
As Ben and Cardiff discuss, there could be major benefits for anyone who can stay ahead of the curve, whatever shape that curve may take.
Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at [e-mail].
Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).
Podcast production and music by Seaplane Armada.
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