029 | 2024年美国大选民调还能信吗？Can We Still Trust 2024 Election Polls?

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。

当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。

美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

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合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

【时间轴】

00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势

00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？

00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？

00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？

00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？

00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？

00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？

00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？

00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？

00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应

1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。

【 What We Talked About】

With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight.

Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today.

The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [e-mail]

【Timeline】

00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls

00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted?

00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist?

00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies

00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes

00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling

00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation?

00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator?

00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading?

00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans

1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

【拓展链接】

https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn

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