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“A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress” by Thane Ruthenis
Manage episode 469918763 series 3364758
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This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.
I'm not fully committed to this model yet: I'm still on the lookout for more agents and inference-time scaling later this year. But Deep Research, Claude 3.7, Claude Code, Grok 3, and GPT-4.5 have turned out largely in line with these expectations[1], and this is my current baseline prediction.
The Current Paradigm: I'm Tucking In to Sleep
I expect that none of the currently known avenues of capability advancement are sufficient to get us to AGI[2].
Outline:
(00:35) The Current Paradigm: Im Tucking In to Sleep
(10:24) Real-World Predictions
(15:25) Closing Thoughts
The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
March 5th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-case-my-predictions-regarding-ai-progress
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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I'm not fully committed to this model yet: I'm still on the lookout for more agents and inference-time scaling later this year. But Deep Research, Claude 3.7, Claude Code, Grok 3, and GPT-4.5 have turned out largely in line with these expectations[1], and this is my current baseline prediction.
The Current Paradigm: I'm Tucking In to Sleep
I expect that none of the currently known avenues of capability advancement are sufficient to get us to AGI[2].
- I don't want to say the pretraining will "plateau", as such, I do expect continued progress. But the dimensions along which the progress happens are going to decouple from the intuitive "getting generally smarter" metric, and will face steep diminishing returns.
- Grok 3 and GPT-4.5 [...]
Outline:
(00:35) The Current Paradigm: Im Tucking In to Sleep
(10:24) Real-World Predictions
(15:25) Closing Thoughts
The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
March 5th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-case-my-predictions-regarding-ai-progress
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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