Artwork

Indhold leveret af Nurole. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Nurole eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.
Player FM - Podcast-app
Gå offline med appen Player FM !

85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks

41:57
 
Del
 

Manage episode 438025573 series 3424178
Indhold leveret af Nurole. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Nurole eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.

Dan Gardner is the international best-selling author of Superforecasting, How Big Things Get Done, Risk and Future Babble. Tune in to hear his thoughts on: What are the key insights from Superforecasting for board members? (1:15) Can you expand on the idea of probabilistic thinking? (10:00) Practically, how can board members apply concepts like epistemic humility and base rates to their decision making? (12:56) Can board members be victims of their own success? (14:43) Do people account sufficiently for luck in previous successes? (17:04) How can boards make sure members get sufficient feedback on their decisions? (20:53) How can boards assess a prospective member’s judgement? (23:55) Why do smart people consistently underestimate the costs of projects, especially fat tail risks? (25:01) How can board members use base rates for IT and building projects to challenge and support? (31:52) Have you established any base rates for budgeting? (37:51)

Host: Oliver Cummings
Producer: Will Felton
Music: Kate Mac
Audio: Nick Kold
Email: podcast@nurole.com
Web: https://www.nurole.com/nurole-podcast-enter-the-boardroom

  continue reading

101 episoder

Artwork
iconDel
 
Manage episode 438025573 series 3424178
Indhold leveret af Nurole. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Nurole eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.

Dan Gardner is the international best-selling author of Superforecasting, How Big Things Get Done, Risk and Future Babble. Tune in to hear his thoughts on: What are the key insights from Superforecasting for board members? (1:15) Can you expand on the idea of probabilistic thinking? (10:00) Practically, how can board members apply concepts like epistemic humility and base rates to their decision making? (12:56) Can board members be victims of their own success? (14:43) Do people account sufficiently for luck in previous successes? (17:04) How can boards make sure members get sufficient feedback on their decisions? (20:53) How can boards assess a prospective member’s judgement? (23:55) Why do smart people consistently underestimate the costs of projects, especially fat tail risks? (25:01) How can board members use base rates for IT and building projects to challenge and support? (31:52) Have you established any base rates for budgeting? (37:51)

Host: Oliver Cummings
Producer: Will Felton
Music: Kate Mac
Audio: Nick Kold
Email: podcast@nurole.com
Web: https://www.nurole.com/nurole-podcast-enter-the-boardroom

  continue reading

101 episoder

Kaikki jaksot

×
 
Loading …

Velkommen til Player FM!

Player FM is scanning the web for high-quality podcasts for you to enjoy right now. It's the best podcast app and works on Android, iPhone, and the web. Signup to sync subscriptions across devices.

 

Hurtig referencevejledning