“Gwern on creating your own AI race and China’s Fast Follower strategy.” by Larks

EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Kz8WpQkCckN9JNHCN/gwern-on-creating-your-own-ai-race-and-china-s-fast-follower

5:58

In 1966, two Brazilian men were found dead on Vintém Hill under bizarre circumstances that continue to perplex investigators and conspiracy theorists alike. Lying side by side, their bodies were discovered wearing matching lead masks—shields with no eyeholes—alongside cryptic notes. Were they victims of a cult ritual, a failed experiment, or something even more otherworldly? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info .…

for ca. et år siden 4:08

MP3•Episode hjem

This is a link post.

Gwern recently wrote a very interesting thread about Chinese AI strategy and the downsides of US AI racing. It's both quite short and hard to excerpt so here is almost the entire thing:

Hsu is a long-time China hawk and has been talking up the scientific & technological capabilities of the CCP for a long time, saying they were going to surpass the West any moment now, so I found this interesting when Hsu explains that:

the scientific culture of China is 'mafia' like (Hsu's term, not mine) and focused on legible easily-cited incremental research, and is against making any daring research leaps or controversial breakthroughs...
but is capable of extremely high quality world-class followup and large scientific investments given a clear objective target and government marching orders
there is no interest or investment in an AI arms race, in part [...]

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First published:
November 25th, 2024

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

256 episoder

#Tech #Society #Philosophy #EA Forum Team #Technology #Non-Profit #Future

“Gwern on creating your own AI race and China’s Fast Follower strategy.” by Larks

EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

published for ca. et år siden

Del

MP3•Episode hjem

This is a link post.

Gwern recently wrote a very interesting thread about Chinese AI strategy and the downsides of US AI racing. It's both quite short and hard to excerpt so here is almost the entire thing:

the scientific culture of China is 'mafia' like (Hsu's term, not mine) and focused on legible easily-cited incremental research, and is against making any daring research leaps or controversial breakthroughs...
but is capable of extremely high quality world-class followup and large scientific investments given a clear objective target and government marching orders
there is no interest or investment in an AI arms race, in part [...]

---

First published:
November 25th, 2024

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Kz8WpQkCckN9JNHCN/gwern-on-creating-your-own-ai-race-and-china-s-fast-follower

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

256 episoder

#Tech #Society #Philosophy #EA Forum Team #Technology #Non-Profit #Future

ทุกตอน

1
“What if I’m not open to feedback?” by frances_lorenz 2:49

for 22 hours siden2:49

2:49

It is standard form in EA to state one's welcomingness of feedback, both in a personal and professional capacity. Individuals and organisations alike often have many means by which you can deliver feedback, whether through anonymous forms or direct communication, and forum posts will often begin or end with: "I'm open to feedback..." "I'm looking for feedback of the following nature..." "I'm very full because I ate feedback for breakfast, but there's always room for more..." And so on. I'm now wondering: what happens if you write, "I am not open to feedback". Literally, is that even allowed? I've never seen it done. I'm concerned to see such heterogeneous thinking on the topic and I find it alarming that a community which espouses openness would be so closed off to non-openness. How is it that not a single person in this intellectual, professional, personal community, or [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8xkGFooEmJNCsFQpv/what-if-i-m-not-open-to-feedback --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“New Cause Area: Low-Hanging Fruit” by Tandena Wagner, Jackson Wagner 14:00

for 2 dage siden14:00

14:00

Hi, I’m Tandena Wagner. As part of my research for EcoResillience Initiative (an EA organization searching for the best ways to preserve biodiversity into the long-term future), I’ve investigated several common claims that various resource limitations could be disastrous for civilization – ie, that we’re approaching “peak oil”, or imminently running out of phosphorus, soil nitrogen, chromium, etc. For the most part, I’ve found these claims to be overblown, often thanks to systematic exaggeration caused by the poor epistemic environment of activist environmentalism. In general, Paul-Erlich-style resource limitations do not seem pressing compared to other risks to civilization. However, there's one key resource that I’ve become increasingly concerned about: human civilization might be running out of low-hanging fruit. This kid can’t reach the fruit because he's just a baby. But soon, this kid's problem could be the WHOLE WORLD's problem. Low-hanging fruit is essential for continued human thriving You might [...] --- Outline: (01:13) Low-hanging fruit is essential for continued human thriving (03:35) What would it mean if humanity exhausted the low-hanging fruit? (04:32) New ways of making fruit hang lower are getting harder to find (05:52) Shorter trees -- lower fruit (08:50) Low-hanging fruit has broad benefits (10:28) The Fruit is Too Damn High (13:07) A fruitful direction for future research --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/new-cause-area-low-hanging-fruit --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Centre for Effective Altruism Is No Longer ‘Effective Altruism’-Related” by Emma Richter🔸 3:57

for 3 dage siden3:57

3:57

For immediate release: April 1, 2025 OXFORD, UK — The Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) announced today that it will no longer identify as an "Effective Altruism" organization. "After careful consideration, we've determined that the most effective way to have a positive impact is to deny any association with Effective Altruism," said a CEA spokesperson. "Our mission remains unchanged: to use reason and evidence to do the most good. Which coincidentally was the definition of EA." The announcement mirrors a pattern of other organizations that have grown with EA support and frameworks and eventually distanced themselves from EA. CEA's statement clarified that it will continue to use the same methodologies, maintain the same team, and pursue identical goals. "We've found that not being associated with the movement we have spent years building gives us more flexibility to do exactly what we were already doing, just with better PR," [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pyXEB5uBsuzhgj8Zz/centre-for-effective-altruism-is-no-longer-effective --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“Mitigating Risks from Rouge AI” by Stephen Clare 9:50

for 3 dage siden9:50

9:50

Introduction Misaligned AI systems, which have a tendency to use their capabilities in ways that conflict with the intentions of both developers and users, could cause significant societal harm. Identifying them is seen as increasingly important to inform development and deployment decisions and design mitigation measures. There are concerns, however, that this will prove challenging. For example, misaligned AIs may only reveal harmful behaviors in rare circumstances, or perceive detection attempts as threatening and deploy countermeasures – including deception and sandbagging – to evade them. For these reasons, developing a range of efforts to detect misaligned behavior, including power-seeking, deception, and sandbagging, among other capabilities, have been proposed. One important indicator, though, has been hiding in plain sight for years. In this post, we identify an underappreciated method that may be both necessary and sufficient to identify misaligned AIs: whether or not they've turned red, i.e. gone rouge. In [...] --- Outline: (01:43) Historical Evidence for Rouge AI (02:59) Recent Empirical Work (05:18) Potential Countermeasure (05:22) The EYES Eval (06:27) EYES Eval Demonstration (07:40) Future Research Directions (08:42) Conclusion --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uKKoj9iqj2cWKsjrt/mitigating-risks-from-rouge-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“80,000 Hours: Job Birds” by Conor Barnes 🔶 3:23

for 3 dage siden3:23

3:23

Hi everybody! I'm Conor. I run the 80,000 Hours Job Board. Or I used to. As of today — April 1 — we are becoming Job Birds! We've been talking to users for the last few years about making this change, and people have overwhelmingly been in favour (remember, there are six or more birds for every human on Earth). Whether it's the daily emails asking me to finally switch, or the flocks of people accosting me at conferences to urge a migration to Job Birds, the demand is overwhelming! Luckily, the wait is over! I've included an FAQ below of the most common questions we receive. FAQ Do these birds have jobs? In a sense, no. In another, preferred sense, definitely! They have roles in ecological niches. What's a good bird to get started with? The peregrine falcon. What's the theory of change? Birds are [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Lee6hyYo7F5BNQJEj/80-000-hours-job-birds --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“Introducing The Spending What We Must Pledge” by Thomas Kwa 💸 5:30

for 3 dage siden5:30

5:30

Epistemic status: highly certain, or something The Spending What We Must 💸11% pledge In short: Members pledge to spend at least 11% of their income on effectively increasing their own productivity. This pledge is likely higher-impact for most people than the Giving What We Can 🔸10% Pledge, and we also think the name accurately reflects the non-supererogatory moral beliefs of many in the EA community. Example Charlie is a software engineer for the Centre for Effective Future Research. Since Charlie has taken the SWWM 💸11% pledge, rather than splurge on a vacation, they decide to buy an expensive noise-canceling headset before their next EAG, allowing them to get slightly more sleep and have 104 one-on-one meetings instead of just 101. In one of the extra three meetings, they chat with Diana, who is starting an AI-for-worrying-about-AI company, and decide to become a cofounder. The company becomes wildly successful, and [...] --- Outline: (00:15) The Spending What We Must 💸11% pledge (00:39) Example (01:26) The 💸💸💸 Badge (01:55) FAQ (01:58) Is the pledge legally binding? (02:08) What do you mean by effectively increasing productivity? (02:33) Im an AI system. Can I take the 💸11% pledge? (03:23) Why is the 💸11% pledge 3x more effective than the 🔸10% pledge? --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qCDad9dWE5hDkYevK/introducing-the-spending-what-we-must-pledge --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Anthropic is not being consistently candid about their connection to EA” by burner2 6:41

for 4 dage siden6:41

6:41

In a recent Wired article about Anthropic, there's a section where Anthropic's president, Daniela Amodei, and early employee Amanda Askell seem to suggest there's little connection between Anthropic and the EA movement: Ask Daniela about it and she says, "I'm not the expert on effective altruism. I don't identify with that terminology. My impression is that it's a bit of an outdated term". Yet her husband, Holden Karnofsky, cofounded one of EA's most conspicuous philanthropy wings, is outspoken about AI safety, and, in January 2025, joined Anthropic. Many others also remain engaged with EA. As early employee Amanda Askell puts it, "I definitely have met people here who are effective altruists, but it's not a theme of the organization or anything". (Her ex-husband, William MacAskill, is an originator of the movement.) This led multiple people on Twitter to call out how bizarre this is: In my [...] --- First published: March 30th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/53Gc35vDLK2u5nBxP/anthropic-is-not-being-consistently-candid-about-their --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Five insights from farm animal economics” by LewisBollard 13:39

for 6 dage siden13:39

13:39

How the dismal science can help us end the dismal treatment of farm animals By Martin Gould Note: This post was crossposted from the Open Philanthropy Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post. This year we’ll be sharing a few notes from my colleagues on their areas of expertise. The first is from Martin. I’ll be back next month. - Lewis In 2024, Denmark announced plans to introduce the world's first carbon tax on cow, sheep, and pig farming. Climate advocates celebrated, but animal advocates should be much more cautious. When Denmark's Aarhus municipality tested a similar tax in 2022, beef purchases dropped by 40% while demand for chicken and pork increased. Beef is the most emissions-intensive meat, so carbon taxes hit it hardest — and Denmark's policies don’t even [...] --- First published: March 20th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ehehif6dmiQco7bJA/five-insights-from-farm-animal-economics --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Stewardship: CEA’s 2025-26 strategy to reach and raise EA’s ceiling” by Oscar Howie, Zachary Robinson🔸 25:36

for 6 dage siden25:36

25:36

“I” refers to Zach, the Centre for Effective Altruism's CEO. Oscar is CEA's Chief of Staff. We are grateful to all the CEA staff and community members who have contributed insightful input and feedback (directly and indirectly) during the development of our strategy and over many years. Mistakes are of course our own. Exec summary As one CEA, we are taking a principles-first approach to stewardship of the EA community. During the search for a new CEO, the board and search committee were open to alternative strategic directions, but from the beginning of my tenure, we’ve committed to a strategy under which we will: Operate as one CEA, rather than winding down, breaking up or renaming the organization. Instead of optimizing for each of our team's programs, we’ll be optimizing for EA as a whole. Take a principles-first approach to EA, rather than becoming an AI org or otherwise re-orienting [...] --- Outline: (00:38) Exec summary (04:15) What does stewardship mean for CEA? (06:55) What does CEA's stewardship mean in practice? (08:34) Growing the EA community (14:54) Improving the EA brand (18:20) Diversifying EA funding (21:47) Strengthening CEA (23:38) Why bother? --- First published: March 28th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QkE35oTsasMn37o7R/stewardship-cea-s-2025-26-strategy-to-reach-and-raise-ea-s-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Joey/AIM transition announcement” by Joey🔸 1:35

for 7 dage siden1:35

1:35

After ~7 years, I am stepping away from being the CEO of AIM and will transition to a board member. My current planned last day is December 1st, giving ample time for a smooth transition. As is true for most times a CEO or co-founder leaves an organization, this is for a pretty large variety of reasons. The biggest three are that: 1) AIM is in a stable place, 2) My counterfactual impact, and 3) My fit for founder vs. CEO roles. You can see more details on each of these in my Substack post. AIM has been one of the most meaningful parts of my life, and that's in no small part due to working with such driven and aligned people. When I first set out to create CE many years ago, I never could have envisioned we'd get to where we are today, and I have [...] --- First published: March 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mh652ZDuqf3Tgh3Cv/joey-aim-transition-announcement --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“Money, Population, and Insecticide Resistance: Why malaria cases haven’t declined since 2015” by Paul SHC 49:55

for 11 dage siden49:55

49:55

Note: I am not a malaria expert. This is my best-faith attempt at answering a question that was bothering me, but this field is a large and complex field, and I’ve almost certainly misunderstood something somewhere along the way. Summary While the world made incredible progress in reducing malaria cases from 2000 to 2015, the past 10 years have seen malaria cases stop declining and start rising. I investigated potential reasons behind this increase through reading the existing literature and looking at publicly available data, and I identified three key factors explaining the rise: Population Growth: Africa's population has increased by approximately 75% since 2000. This alone explains most of the increase in absolute case numbers, while cases per capita have remained relatively flat since 2015. Stagnant Funding: After rapid growth starting in 2000, funding for malaria prevention plateaued around 2010. Insecticide Resistance: Mosquitoes have become increasingly resistant [...] --- Outline: (00:25) Summary (02:06) Introduction (04:31) Ok, give me the 1 minute rundown on what malaria is and how we fight it? (05:22) Preventing malaria has historically meant distributing bednets (07:58) There's a lot of good evidence showing that bednets have been effective at preventing malaria (09:07) The percent of people with access to bednets and the percent of people sleeping under bednets have both stayed constant or increased since 2015 (10:47) So what did cause the increase in malaria cases since 2015? (11:54) Factor 1: Population increase (17:35) Factor 2: Stagnant funding (23:21) Factor 3: Insecticide resistance (34:23) What are the relative contribution of these three components? (38:10) Factors that don't seem to be major contributors (38:27) The decline until 2015 and stagnation after do not represent trends in separate countries or regions (39:37) Removing PFAS from bednets doesn't appear to have affected experimental hut results (44:23) Anopheles stephensi isn't present in the areas with the highest rates of malaria yet (45:26) Nobody knows if climate change is making malaria worse (47:20) Conclusions The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: March 16th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rxTPv3MdrsHiqK7kM/money-population-and-insecticide-resistance-why-malaria --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“You probably won’t solve malaria or x-risk, and that’s ok” by Rory Fenton 10:03

for 14 dage siden10:03

10:03

Cross-posted from my blog. Contrary to my carefully crafted brand as a weak nerd, I go to a local CrossFit gym a few times a week. Every year, the gym raises funds for a scholarship for teens from lower-income families to attend their summer camp program. I don’t know how many Crossfit-interested low-income teens there are in my small town, but I’ll guess there are perhaps 2 of them who would benefit from the scholarship. After all, CrossFit is pretty niche, and the town is small. Helping youngsters get swole in the Pacific Northwest is not exactly as cost-effective as preventing malaria in Malawi. But I notice I feel drawn to supporting the scholarship anyway. Every time it pops in my head I think, “My money could fully solve this problem”. The camp only costs a few hundred dollars per kid and if there are just 2 kids who [...] --- Outline: (01:19) You are only ever making small dents in important problems (03:06) The man who failed to fully solve a genocide (06:29) Saving starfish (07:40) Big problems are actually solved piece by piece The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: March 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZKfFoo8ttD9NEpKHv/you-probably-won-t-solve-malaria-or-x-risk-and-that-s-ok --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“80,000 Hours is shifting our strategic approach to focus more on AGI” by 80000_Hours, Niel_Bowerman 14:53

for 14 dage siden14:53

14:53

TL;DR In a sentence: We are shifting our strategic focus to put our proactive effort towards helping people work on safely navigating the transition to a world with AGI, while keeping our existing content up. In more detail: We think it's plausible that frontier AI companies will develop AGI by 2030. Given the significant risks involved, and the fairly limited amount of work that's been done to reduce these risks, 80,000 Hours is adopting a new strategic approach to focus our efforts in this area. During 2025, we are prioritising: Deepening our understanding as an organisation of how to improve the chances that the development of AI goes well Communicating why and how people can contribute to reducing the risks Connecting our users with impactful roles in this field And fostering an internal culture which helps us to achieve these goals We remain focused on impactful [...] --- Outline: (01:44) Why we're updating our strategic direction (04:02) How we hope to achieve it (05:44) Community implications (08:38) Potential questions you might have (08:42) What does this mean for non-AI cause areas? (10:44) How big a shift is this from 80k's status quo? (11:58) Are EA values still important? (13:36) What would cause us to change our approach? --- First published: March 20th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4ZE3pfwDKqRRNRggL/80-000-hours-is-shifting-our-strategic-approach-to-focus --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“Projects I’d like to see in the GHW meta space” by Melanie Basnak🔸 14:32

for 15 dage siden14:32

14:32

In my past year as a grantmaker in the global health and wellbeing (GHW) meta space at Open Philanthropy, I've identified some exciting ideas that could fill existing gaps. While these initiatives have significant potential, they require more active development and support to move forward. The ideas I think could have the highest impact are: Government placements/secondments in key GHW areas (e.g. international development), and Expanded (ultra) high-net-worth ([U]HNW) advising Each of these ideas needs a very specific type of leadership and/or structure. More accessible options I’m excited about — particularly for students or recent graduates — could involve virtual GHW courses or action-focused student groups. I can’t commit to supporting any particular project based on these ideas ahead of time, because the likelihood of success would heavily depend on details (including the people leading the project). Still, I thought it would be helpful to [...] --- Outline: (01:19) Introduction (02:30) Project ideas (02:33) Fellowships and Placements (02:37) Placement orgs for governments and think tanks (03:06) Fellowships/Placements at GHW Organizations (03:57) More, and different, effective giving organizations (04:03) More (U)HNW advising (05:14) Targeting different niche demographics (05:50) Filling more geographic gaps (06:08) Infrastructure support for GHW organizations (06:38) EA-inspired GHW courses (06:56) BlueDot Impact for GHW (07:40) Incorporating EA content into university courses (08:35) Useful GHW events (08:51) Events bringing together EA and mainstream GHD orgs (09:57) Career panels or similar (10:13) More, and different, student groups (10:18) Action-focused student groups (11:34) Policy-focused grad student groups (11:51) Less thought-through ideas (13:12) Perceived impact and fit The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: March 18th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pAE6zfAgceCop6vcE/projects-i-d-like-to-see-in-the-ghw-meta-space --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

1
“Am I Missing Something, or Is EA? Thoughts from a Learner in Uganda” by Dr Kassim 7:05

for 17 dage siden7:05