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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
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Indhold leveret af Mike Frazier. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Mike Frazier eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.
Weekly market insights and commentary on some of today’s most pressing topics from Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling - a Bay Area Registered Investment Advisor specializing in investment management and financial planning.
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106 episoder
Marker alle som (u)afspillede ...
Manage series 3392107
Indhold leveret af Mike Frazier. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Mike Frazier eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.
Weekly market insights and commentary on some of today’s most pressing topics from Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling - a Bay Area Registered Investment Advisor specializing in investment management and financial planning.
…
continue reading
106 episoder
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 DeepDive on DeepSeek and Beyond - Another Rapid Rundown 15:34
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15:34The Global AI Race took a surprising turn with news that a Chinese startup’s Large Language Model (LLM) outperformed the American leaders. DeepSeek’s AI model release sent shockwaves through Silicon Valley and the Market with fears that China has gained on America’s AI advantage. What’s more, DeepSeek’s LLMs were created despite US aggressive export controls designed to limit China’s access to the advanced semiconductor chips that are believed to be required for AI work. Then there’s this: It’s doing it at a fraction of the cost. Simply put, DeepSeek claims to be 97% cheaper and actually performs on par with ChatGPT, Gemini, Meta AI and Claude...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's just one week into the second Trump administration and it's been as eventful a start to any Presidential term in memory. What a difference in the White House. Regardless of what people think of the 45th and 47th President, he definitely makes people move. One of the biggest takeaways from Trump 2.0 has been the Market's hyper-focus on trade and the volatility around the constant flow of tariff headlines. The threat of wide-ranging tariffs slapped on America's trading partners threatens growth, prices and currencies. There's been a ton of speculation and bracing for action. Thus far, the Market has taken it very much in stride with the perceived thinking that thus far, the bark has been much bigger than the bite. But make no mistake, there has been plenty of barking. It's still very early days...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's that time again: Earnings Season. Corporate America turns in their quarterly report cards for investors to gauge fundamentals and results. It's always refreshing to be able to sideline emotions and rhetoric so we can focus on facts...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The AI trade was back on to start this first full week of 2025. It didn’t last though. But the AI theme keeps gaining steam. What’s being called the most transformational new technology that humanity has ever had in its grasp has been the major driver of the Stock Market. Artificial Intelligence is already impacting all things, economic, political, geopolitical, military, social and education. It’s that big. Advancements have been swift and mind blowing. There’s also this: Rules and regulations are few and governments simply cannot keep up with the speed of innovation...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
'Twas the Friday before Christmas, And all across the land, Not a creature was stirring, Not even Taylor Swift's band...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The week started with a bang overseas. There was a revolution in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad's regime fell to rebel forces. The 50-year reign of the Assad family in Syria has come to an abrupt end. Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow, seeking asylum. This brought an end to the bloody and brutal 13-year Syrian civil war. What's more, Assad's biggest backers have been weakened significantly. Russia and Iran sit at the top of that list. Moscow spent significant financial and political capital to keep Assad in power during that civil war. Their investment just went up in flames...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Wall Street lost a legend this week. His name was Art Cashin. He was a unique character in so many ways. Art Cashin was the Director of Floor Operations for UBS at the New York Stock Exchange. He started his career at a small brokerage firm, becoming one of the youngest traders to obtain a seat on Wall Street. He later went to Paine Webber a couple decades later. Paine Webber was acquired by UBS. Cashin stayed on board. As the years passed and trading volume moved from human hands to machines, the number of people on the floor dissipated. Cashin’s presence remained, with passion and purpose. He was a legendary figure...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Market has a bit of a love hate relationship with the American government. It always has and probably always will. The Market definitely relishes the stability and safety our government provides but gets easily agitated with overreach and a lack of discipline. There’s definitely been a lot of the latter of late...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The post-election rally stalled this week. The Dow and S&P erased half of their gains since Election Day. A better-than-expected earnings report from Disney helped cushion the Dow, while the Tech-heavy NAS fared the worst on the week. The Market continues to deal with the fits and starts in the wake of the election. It’s trying to decipher the differences of campaign promises versus actual governing priorities. There have been some cabinet appointments that, shall I say, have raised some eyebrows as well as caused full blown shock. That shock included members from within the Republican Party...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
November 5th, 2024. It’s a date that been circled on the calendar since 2023 concluded. The hype is over. It finally came; The consequential American Presidential election. The people mailed in their ballots and headed to the voting booths in size. The mood had been extremely tense, at times vitriolic, with a surplus of nervous energy. That’s pretty much how the Market had been behaving of late. Traders had been anxious about outcomes that could shape Washington’s agenda for years ahead. The country is sorely divided. One thing the American people agreed upon heading into the election is the nation’s current state. 70% believe the country is on the wrong track. Change has been a constant theme...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Earnings, Economy & the Election: Another Rapid Rundown 12:29
12:29
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12:29The Stock Market kept the brakes on. There have been back-to-back weekly decliners, which followed 6 straight weeks of gains. It makes sense with so much going on. This was as big of a week for Market-moving events as I can ever remember in my near 30-year career. There's a ton for the Market to absorb: Earnings. Economic data. Fed Meeting. Global wars. Oil. And oh, yeah, that not-so-small election next week. With that said, here's another rapid rundown...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Stock Market rally took a breather. The streak of 6-weekly gains came to an end. Momentum slowed with election uncertainty, deficit concerns and added pressure on interest rates. Leadership narrowed back to Tech ahead of a massive run of earnings next week. It was rising yields that caused the speedbumps...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Stock Market keeps on keeping on, as they say. This week, the S&P 500 hit its 47th fresh all-time-high in 2024. It’s been 6 straight week of gains for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. This marks the best performance for America’s Stock Market at this point in the year since 1997. Now that’s saying something. What makes it more remarkable is that it is occurring at a point where so many risks are on the rise, from wars overseas to the Presidential election in just 3 weeks. That age old saying that the Market climbs a wall of worry sure is accurate today...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The rally on Wall Street continues. The Dow and S&P keep hitting fresh, all-time highs. It’s happening in an environment of crisis and extremes. This year has witnessed growing fears of an economic slowdown, inflation, high interest rates, expanding wars overseas, natural disasters and an exceptionally divisive and unpredictable Presidential election campaign. So of course, over the first three quarters, it turns out the S&P 500 had its best performance this century. It’s defied logic and seasonality with a green August, September and so far, October. It’s been a remarkable year for investors. There’s also this: There’s nothing like price to change sentiment...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
America is hitting an energy bottleneck as the AI revolution accelerates power demand to unprecedented levels. Data centers supporting the computing power are popping up all over the country which has created a need for clean and sustainable sources of energy. The ability to fuel them is getting stretched. Something’s gotta give. America is struggling to power the Digital Age...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Fed officially put an end to its restrictive monetary policy by cutting interest rates for the first time since March of 2020. That was back deep in the heart of Covid. After a strong recovery for the Economy and asset prices, America’s central bank launched a hiking campaign, raising rates 11 times, starting in the Spring of 2022. They took the overnight rate from zero to 5%+. That’s where they stayed for 14 months, designed to choke off the multi-decade high inflation that sprung. The Fed has now declared victory...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
September sure started out with a bang. Not in a good way. The low volume rally into Labor Day proved to be a bit of a sucker's rally as the winds changed towards Autumn. The increased volatility sure has shaken investors out this Summer. Buy-the-dip has worked all year. The 8% August sell-off in the wake of the Japan crash nearly got erased last week as the S&P came within 1% of its all-time highs reached in July. The Dow actually hit new highs. Then September hit...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Summer is coming to a close. Well, unofficially that is. Labor Day marks the unofficial end of Summer in America as the calendar turns to September. Kids are mostly back at school. Vacations have concluded. People start returning to the office. Reality sets back in. Of course, Summer officially ends with the Autumnal equinox on September 22nd.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Beneath the Surface - The S&P Other 493 8:08
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8:08The balance of risk has changed. That opinion was evident from Fed Chair Powell Friday. In his widely anticipated and widely followed speech he green lighted rate cuts. He indicated increased comfort around taming inflation and believes now the bigger risk is rising unemployment. He appears confident that the risk of recession is going down because the Fed is going to cut interest rates. Some might say the Fed Chair took a victory lap today, celebrating a soft-landing. The Stock Market might agree with that, but looking closer at the internals suggests otherwise. The Bond Market is still very concerned about a recession ahead, as are we...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Paris won the Gold Medal in 2024. That was the consensus from the international press, which continues to rave about this year's Olympic Games. The Eifel Tower with the Olympic rings was a standout star, among many, which include Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky and Steph Curry. It was no guarantee, that's for sure. One mustn't forget that France was mired in political turmoil and snap elections due to a vote of no confidence heading into the Games. I, for one, found myself enjoying these Olympics more than most in recent years. In fairness, Tokyo had a tough go, holding the 2020 global event both delayed and during the pandemic.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It’s early August, often referred to as the “Dog Days of Summer.” The term is rooted in Roman times. August generally means warm weather, family vacations and Stock Market volatility. It’s also wildfire and hurricane season. Last year saw selling start in August with a bottom put in October, which set up the multi-month run to new all-time highs. That’s been the normal seasonal pattern for decades. Of course, there’s little normal these days...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Olympics are in full swing in Paris. In fact, they've already reached the halfway point. The world has been watching. Olympic viewership is up 80% from the Tokyo Games in 2021. 34 Million Americans have been watching the games this week on average in primetime. This is a significant number considering the time distance in France. The actual events occurred earlier in the day with plenty of live access. But the experience of watching the Olympics in the evening has been a time-honored tradition that still lives in this Digital Age. This is indeed a moment in time to witness greatness in the likes of Simone Biles and Katie Ladecky...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Have you noticed an increase of black crows in your neighborhood over the years? Apparently, the crow population has spiked 15-fold in the Bay Area the last 2 decades. That, according to the Audubon Society. The black crow has become populous and common across the country. Conversely, there's a black bird that is not so common: The black swan. They're naturally found in Australia and Tasmania. For most of history, people didn't know that black swans even existed...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Summer slowdown? No chance. Like that Hurricane that whipped through the Caribbean and the Yucatán Peninsula before landing in Texas, there have been swirling winds and rapid cross currents in Washington, on Wall Street and beyond...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
America's Economy is showing some signs of cooling. Weaker than expected retail sales indicate consumers are slowing their spending. Make no mistake, they continue to spend. But the spending has become more selective. One thing still seems evident: Americans still want experiences. The Market reflects it...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Apple has officially entered the AI race. The company has faced criticism for months for being late to the party. Better late than never. And realistically, the delayed timing is very much in Apple's style. This year's announcement at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, held in Cupertino, was the most widely anticipated Apple speech since Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone 17 years ago.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
80 years ago this week, nearly 200,000 troops from 8 allied nations stormed the beaches of Normandy or parachuted behind enemy lines. Over 130,000 were American. It will forever be known as D-Day. On June 6, 1944; The liberation of Europe commenced...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
America has a debt problem. It's currently $34.7 Trillion and counting. It costs over $1 Trillion a year to service it. As a reminder, if you stacked $1 Bills vertically end-to-end from the ground to the sky, it would reach the Moon and nearly back to Earth. How about that for a visual? The Congressional Budget Office recently reported it expects US public debt to rise to 166% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2054. That's 30 years from now. It's currently 99% this year if you exclude the debt the Federal government owes itself. Including it, debt-to-GDP is over 120%...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's Memorial Day weekend. That marks the beginning of the Summer driving season. The economic health of the American consumer will be on display. It certainly matters to the Market as consumer spending accounts for 70% of America's Economy. The good news is the price of Oil is below $80. Gas prices across the country are back near lows of the year and match last year's level of $3.58 per gallon. Of course, those of us in California see much higher prices at the pump. Lower gas prices mean more money to spend elsewhere...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Dow 40K and Beyond - Another Rapid Rundown 9:32
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9:32The Stock Market hit a fresh, all-time high this week. The S&P 500 cleared 5300 for the first time. The Dow reached a new, major pinnacle of 40K. The rally continued. All that seemed to matter to the Market was that Fed Chair Powell signaled the next rate move will, in all likelihood, be down, and not up. It was off to the races for stocks with a historic Friday finish. There's nothing like some big round numbers to get the Bulls excited. Hats and champagne were present on the floor of the exchange. No matter how you slice it, the continued strength for stocks is quite impressive...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
One thing is clear: Investors are still in good shape. The rally continued with a series of low-volume gains this week. The Dow rose 8 straight days for the first time this year. The 5% sell-off in April has all but been erased. The Dow, S&P and NAS are less than 1% away from their all-time record highs reached last month. Sector participation has definitely broadened, and Tech has not been the leader...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
After April brought showers to the Stock Market, sliding more than 4%, the first week of May brought flowers with Markets rallying nearly 2% to start the month. Volatility has certainly picked up and I'll get into the why. I can't recall a busier week of market-moving key economic reports, Central Bank news-driven flow, fiscal announcements, and earnings all being released in a 5-day period...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Heightened volatility remains within the Market. It's been that way all April. This week brought upside movement as the S&P put an end to its weekly losing streak. Choppy price action is to be expected. It's a volatile world in which we live...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Nagging Inflation - You Want Fries with That? 11:23
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11:23Market turbulence is back. It returned with a vengeance this week. I last wrote on March 31st these words: "The Market was running pretty hot heading into Spring. We could see a cooling off period before another run higher. It's not a stretch to say volatility is likely to pick up as we head towards Summer. A lot of good stuff has been priced in from this rally. The Presidential election is heating up and we anticipate the road ahead to be quite bumpy. This Bull still seems healthy. It's just getting mature. And the next stretch could definitely be a challenge." That was from our Spring Newsletter which went out last week. The road definitely got bumpy, fast...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
That sweet tooth is getting increasingly more expensive to satisfy. The culprit this time: Chocolate. Cocoa prices have tripled since last year due to a bean disease in West Africa. It's not looking like prices will come down anytime soon. Cocoa supplies are down drastically. There’s no quick nor easy fix. Production has been curbed by severe weather and the crop disease in both Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Together, these nations are responsible for roughly 70% of global Cocoa production. Nearly 5 million tons of Cocoa were produced around the world last year. Supply shortages sent Cocoa futures prices surging well past $10,000 per metric ton this week. The price has increased 50% this month alone. In fact, Cocoa beans are now more expensive than Copper. That’s some hot chocolate...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's that time of year again: The NCAA tournament. The big dance in college basketball. Practice is over. Proper preparation is key. It's the time for performance. Anything can happen. Win or go home. Titans tend to reign. But Cinderella stories are also born. It's an event like no other. It's March Madness...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
I was in Arizona this week for strategy sessions with Schwab. There were over 150 firms represented from across the country congregating together to discuss industry issues and opportunities. The focus was both on today and, even more so, tomorrow. The future is clearly now....
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The State of America - Soft Landing, Hard Politicking 11:16
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11:16Many of you know that I wrote my thesis at Cal on Mark Twain and the Western Frontier. It was out west where Samuel Clemens experienced the expansion of the then 9-decade-old nation. Clemens was born on the banks of the Mississippi. He grew up and grew wise in his adventures out west. His childhood dream was to be a riverboat pilot. He fled Mississippi as the nation was being torn apart by the Civil War...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Amazon entered the Dow this week. It's another major milestone for the innovative American company. It's a prestigious achievement; A badge of honor in US Stock Market history. There are only 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at any given time. They do change periodically. Amazon, a longtime NASDAQ member, entered the S&P 500 in 2005...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Nvidia saved the rally. The most talked about stock in the world reported earnings Wednesday. As I wrote last week, Nvidia and AI have become more important than the Fed; At least to the Market. Expectations were sky high. Nvidia delivered, and then some. It was another blowout quarter for the company that's powering AI. Nvidia had already grown revenue by over 200% and earnings over 400% in a year. Nvidia's stock has been a rocket ship for the innovation trade. The stock has soared 60% already in this young year. It hit $800 for the first time.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Retail sales declined 0.8% in January. That was much worse than the 0.1% decline expected. It was a notable slide from December's 0.4% monthly increase. After a strong Holiday spending season, a slowdown in January is pretty customary. This one was obviously bigger. Building materials and supplies saw the biggest decline, down 4.1% in January. Furniture sales grew. Bars and restaurants continue to see increases. That's been a consistent theme. Americans have been out and about with a vengeance. Covid triggered the fierce rebound in activity and consumption. It hasn't slowed.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's that time of year. Americans from coast-to-coast will be glued to televisions. Food and beverage consumption will skyrocket. It's Super Bowl Sunday. Over the last 57 years, audiences and Dollars spent have increased in size for this special Sunday. This one, Super Bowl 58, is going to be a Super Bowl like no other. First of all, it's in Las Vegas. This is the NFL's maiden voyage for its championship game in Sin City. It has a marquee matchup with the Niners and the Chiefs. CBS and the NFL are ecstatic about this pairing. And of course, there's that Taylor Swift factor. You simply can't talk about this year's Super Bowl without mentioning Time's Person of the Year. For some people, she's bigger than the game itself. I'm not one of them. But I sure get it.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
This was another one of those eventful weeks. The Market absorbed so many news items and priced them in on the fly, as it does. The Market is a discounting mechanism. It anticipates outcomes and instantly prices them in. As probabilities move, the Market adjusts. It has the wisdom of crowds. There was a lot of movement this week. Here's another rapid rundown of what went down.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The most widely anticipated recession never showed up in 2023. Not only that, the US Economy accelerated in the Summer and kept up a solid pace into year-end. The unemployment rate remains near 50-year lows. That has supported the American people's grand spending habits.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The results are in: Americans opened their wallets over the Holidays. Retail sales rose 5.6% in December compared to a year ago. Higher prices contributed to the increase, but not all of it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.4% in December. That was a sharp decline from the inflationary pressures in 2022. Inflation is going back in the right direction. To be clear, prices are still rising. They're just rising at a slower rate than last year.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Las Vegas was abuzz this week and it had nothing to do with football. The Raiders season is done and the Super Bowl will be held there for the first time in February. (Side note, the Raiders belong in Oakland). This week was all about tech toys and innovative gadgets as the annual Consumer Electronics Show, now referred to simply as "CES," took over Sin City.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
What an eventful year. 2023 sure has been a banner year for investors. It definitely didn't start out that way. Remember the banking crisis and the takedowns of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic in the Spring? That seems like forever ago.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
'Twas the night before Christmas From coast to coast, Not a creature was stirring Not even a cable news host The stockings were hung By the chimney with care With hopes that this rally Still will be there Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer It's affectionately known as "AI" The Magnificent 7 are the early winners Their stocks soared to the sky War spread around the globe again It comes both cold and hot Global alliances keep getting tested It's a dangerous lesson being taught Eras launched a record tour People from everywhere came to cheer Taylor Swift was America's economic engine She is Time's Person of the Year The House removed its Speaker Kicked out by his own right-wing Finland is the latest to join NATO And England has a new king 2023 was the warmest on record NASA tracks it every year Fire scorched through the island of Maui Tragedy, devastation and fear Inflation slowed its torrid pace Prices still remain quite high The Fed stopped raising interest rates That triggered Wall Street to buy Movie theaters were packed this Summer Oppenheimer and the atomic men Most popular was a film about dolls Their names were Barbie and Ken The Dodgers paid $700 Million for a player Spanish women won their first World Cup Bochy brought Texas a baseball title While Oakland sports keep breaking-up We lost Munger and Kissinger, Rosalyn Carter and Sandra Day Norman Lear made his last curtain call, Jim Brown sure could play Gone are Buffett and Belafonte, Tina and Tony who sing Suzanne Somers kept us company, far too soon went Chandler Bing The American spirit is peerless, time-tested and true With perseverance and sound leadership, there's nothing we can't do With crisis brings opportunity, history has shown Success through ingenuity, it's the fabric of our home Now, Democrats! Now, Republicans! Now, Independents and others! Our nation requires collaboration! We're all sisters and brothers! To the top of the porch! To the top of the wall! Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all! By: Mike Frazier Happy Holidays from all of us at Bedell Frazier…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle has come to an end. At least that's the message that was received Wednesday. The Market exploded with enthusiasm as the year-end rally continued. The magic words were rate cuts in 2024. This was a major pivot by the Fed.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Energy prices keep slipping. It's a big deal in the continuing fight on inflation. The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has declined 22% in the fourth quarter. It's down 7 consecutive weeks, undercutting $70 a barrel at one point, the lowest since July. It sure looks like prices are going to stay low for a while. The 6-month time spreads continue to trade in contango. That suggests a global Oil glut through next Summer.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The American Consumer keeps proving, time and again, it has some serious resiliency. That was on display last weekend as people from coast-to-coast were scooping up deals in their shopping baskets as the Holiday season commenced. Many continue to purchase on the go or from their couch. Online sales now account for over 15% of retail today. That number keeps growing. Online sales for Cyber Week, driven by the 5 days from Thanksgiving, increased 7.8% compared to last year. In total, $38 Billion was spent online. Nearly $100 Billion was spent in the whole month of November. But people still hit the stores, including our very own Meredith Rosen and her trusty sidekick Roxanne. Physical retail store traffic was up 1.5% for the Black Friday Weekend. There were 120 Million others that joined Rox and Mere. Well sort of. Of course, they were scattered throughout shopping malls nationwide. They weren't all in Marin County like the Rosens.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 So Much Going On - Another Rapid Rundown 12:05
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12:05I couldn't focus on just one topic this week. There were so many events that matter taking place. The Bay Area drew the most attention. It wasn't due to the Niners' resurgence, although that in and of itself is no small development. Fast and furious activity is a constant these days, some scale large, others small. But things are so intertwined. With so much going on, I try to weave them all together in this week's rapid rundown.…
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There will be a major meeting in the Bay Area next week. The World will be watching. Presidents Biden and Xi will sit down, face to face, in a significant engagement for the top economic powers. It will be the first and only in-person meeting for these two leaders this year. They last met at the G20 Summit in Bali in November, a year ago. The perceived desired outcome is "Competition, not confrontation". That's the set-up in San Francisco.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Stocks soared to start November, with the best weekly gains of the year. Of course it came as October ended with 3 consecutive monthly declines. That had not happened since 2020. That was deep in the heat of Covid. We know all too well how price action can shake things out.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The American people keep spending. That's an important takeaway from a series of data points reported this week. Despite chronic high prices and spiking interest rates, consumer spending hasn't seen much of a dent; At least not yet. Of course this matters as the Consumer accounts for 70% of America's Economy. In Q3, spending was still strong.…
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1 What the Mideast War Means to the Market 9:21
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9:21I have been dreading writing this piece all week. What happened, what is happening and what will further happen in the future makes me both sad and furious as a fellow human being on Planet Earth. Hate and anger is everywhere. The violence is simply horrific.
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The United States Federal Government is set to shutdown at midnight Sunday. This, unless there is an 11th-hour continuing resolution agreed to by Congress, which looks doubtful at best. I outlined some of the implications of a shutdown last week. The Market has been taking it pretty much in stride all along. In fact, the Market has absorbed multiple pressures all year and rallied in the face of it. September brought a continuation of the Stock Market sell-off. This is typical corrective price action, which historically leads to a rally into year-end.…
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Price action picked up its choppiness this week. Both stock and bond prices fell. Higher interest rates are finally mattering. It sure has taken longer than we anticipated. The 0% interest rate environment from the last decade and a half has completely come unwound. It's a healthier place for the Market to get to. But the process of recalibration has been beyond bumpy. The correction began in 2022. It paused for much 2023. September made it clear, it's back.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
I know I say it a lot, but there's so much going on these days. The Market is a living, breathing animal which is driven by a myriad of issues and events around the world. As a discounting mechanism, it prices in expectations of various outcomes quickly. It's the wisdom of crowds. Here's another rapid rundown of the week's events and implications ahead.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
This week officially marked the end of an era. A new one was born. TD Ameritrade is no more. The Charles Schwab Corporation officially integrated the business it bought into a merged platform which created the largest discount broker dealer and custodian in our industry. It's been a 3-year process. The acquisition was announced in 2019. Both companies operated separately throughout. I've watched it closely. Seeing them come together triggers mixed emotions. My relationship with both Schwab and TD is long and deep.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's Labor Day weekend. This marks the unofficial end of Summer. Activities have concluded. Kids are mostly back in school. Neighborhoods are seemingly quieter during the day. Parents are no doubt facing those bigger bills. It's a total bummer for some. Others might be rejoicing in getting their lives back, of sorts. This weekend is the final push to spend time at the beach or the lake. It's the last hurrah. September brings a new mindset. The weather starts to turn. The year-end rush is about to begin.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
There's been some turbulent price action throughout the Market in August. It's been felt in stocks, it's been felt in bonds, it's also been felt in commodities. Trends reversed hard from earlier in the year, when prices had generally risen. Some assets have moved at faster paces than others, particularly in Mega Cap Tech, which shot up like a rocket ship in 2023 after being sent cascading back to Earth last year. Most other areas in the Market have experienced more muted gains heading into this Summer. Then July turned to August. Across the board, prices stopped going up in August. Not even the AI revolution could keep stock prices elevated.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Americans keep spending. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q2. Strong consumer spending led. The Fed's staff subsequently canceled its prediction for a recession, given the resilience of the Economy. Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, a much stronger-than-expected result. The Street modeled 0.4% growth. That translates to a 3.2% year-over-year increase. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of America's economic activity. It's still strong. Cars and Health Care spending were the standout strength, up 8% each.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
We are in the heart of August and that means Back-to-School season is upon us. Students are getting ready to meet their new teachers with mixed emotions of both nerves and excitement for going back to school. In fact, some parts of the country have already started school. Parents are tasked with taking inventory and gearing kids up for heading back to class. This is no small feat, especially as consumers have seen their budgets stretched due to inflation.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 America's Economic Engine - Dynamic Women 8:46
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8:46The Federal Reserve took interest rates to a 22-year high this week, reaching 5.5%. The Market seems to be declaring a Fed victory over the historic inflation. The Consumer Price Index is now down to 3%. It hit over 9% last Summer. Importantly, the Fed no longer forecasts a recession ahead. That's new. What's also new is the Economy accelerated in Q2. It grew 2.4%, faster than anticipated. Americans are out and about, and they keep spending. The Fed even said that Taylor Swift has been an economic engine for America. You better believe it. I'm not making that up. More on T Swift below.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
It's been 17 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. It was widely believed initially that Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. It didn't. The resolve of the Ukrainian people was completely underestimated. The War in Ukraine has not had much of an impact on the Market. Of course, the price of Oil spiked at the outset of the invasion. But it has since given up all of those gains.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The rate of inflation keeps cooling. This week proved it again. The Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in June compared to a year ago. That's the slowest pace since the Spring of 2021. Inflation keeps moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The Core rate, which strips out Food and Energy, was up 4.8%. That is also a 2-year low. It was 5.3% in May. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. It was up 4.6% in May. The June PCE report comes later this month. The Fed's 2% target is believed to be the sweet spot for inflation. It's low enough for consumer comfort while allowing America's Economy to grow. It's not there yet.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Twelve score and seven years ago, our fathers brought forth a new nation. It was an idea, years in the making. A place called Independence Hall in Philadelphia became the birthplace of the United States of America. In the Summer of 1776, the Second Continental Congress signed the Declaration of Independence. Eleven years later, in that same room, the lasting framework of government was created and signed. It is forever known as the United States Constitution. Our nation's birth came over a year after the war began in Lexington and Concord.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Washington this week. The goal was to enhance the growing alliance with the United States as well as seek mutual investments as his country represents a strategic counterweight to China. Modi also met with top leaders from Silicon Valley. That included Apple's Tim Cook, Microsoft's Satya Nadella and Alphabet's Sundar Pichai. The Prime Minister also met with Elon Musk earlier in the week in New York. Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence development and policies was a top focus of the visit.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Forget "Sell in May and Go Away." June brought some serious Stock Market strength. This rip-roaring rally sure caught us by surprise. The yield curve has been inverted for over a year, amongst the widest levels in history. The aggressive Fed tightening, the slowing Economy, simmering geopolitical tensions, not even the serious risk of an American debt default has tamed this Bull. Or is this another one of those violent Bear Market rallies? One never knows until it's over. It's important to remember that some of the most powerful rallies come in the Bear variety. Usually, it pays to not fight the Fed. In this case, it hasn't paid to be diversified and it hasn't paid to fight the tape. This stretch has been incredibly confusing.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Apple introduced its first mixed-reality headset at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference this week. It launched a new era of what CEO Tim Cook called "spatial computing." The sleek, digital goggles seemingly take you to another world. Or perhaps more accurately, that virtual world comes to you when you put the headset on and take a break from reality. The Vision Pro is Apple's first new device platform since the Apple Watch went on sale 8 years ago. It's basically a face computer. The cost is a tidy $3500. It's definitely not for everyone.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
2023 was supposed to be the most telegraphed economic recession in memory. To be sure, things have definitely been slowing. That's been evident throughout retail and manufacturing. People are buying less stuff. Commodity prices, from Oil to Steel to Copper, fell to multi-month lows. It's a sign of shrinking demand. Those segments of the Economy have been weak. It's also deflationary. But not everything has been weak. Travel and entertainment are as strong as ever. It's been hard for companies in those industries to find workers. TSA just recorded airport traffic over the Memorial Day weekend that eclipsed the 2019 record, pre-Covid. The American people are out and about, and they're definitely consuming. The recession keeps getting pushed out. The Market likes that.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
America's Economy keeps chugging along, despite so many signs of slowing. Consumers keep consuming. That's critical as consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP. They have certainly changed their interests and habits though. Americans keep buying less stuff and are spending more out and about. It's been a complete reversal from Covid.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
As goes Disney, so goes the nation. That's a popular phrase used for years, as the company touches so many aspects of America's Economy, from coast-to-coast. Today Disney spans the globe. Perhaps soon, the phrase will expand to the World. Ultimately, it will no doubt include AI.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
$31 Trillion; That's our nation's debt. It's a really big number. A Trillion has twelve 0's: 31,000,000,000,000. Another way to say it is 31 Thousand Billion or 31 Million Million. Again, it's a really big number.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The school year is nearing a close. The start of May, next week, leads to finals followed by report cards, which takes students into Summer. It's an exciting time. It's a stressful and scary time too. The class of 2023 will embark on their next stage of life; Hopefully prepared for whatever comes their way. June used to be that month, but for better or for worse, that month is now May. Proper preparation is the way. As the legendary voice of the Dodgers, Vin Scully, once said: "It's the humility to prepare and the confidence to pull it off." Those are some good words from a great man.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The Debt Ceiling, the Dollar, ChatGPT and Me 8:49
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8:49The Debt ceiling is back on the public radar this week. It never left ours. We've considered it amongst the greatest risks in 2023; Still do. The issue is expected to ultimately get resolved. But the deadline could come sooner. The political process will undoubtedly bring stress. That's the Washington way. Making things more complicated, this Congressional group seems as fixated on division as we've ever seen. So, there's that too.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Earnings, Inflation & the Oracle of Omaha 7:42
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7:42It's that time again: Earnings Season. Corporate America delivers its quarterly report cards to show investors how they're doing. It's a time to focus on facts. It's about execution and results. Above all else, over time, it's earnings that drive stock prices.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The hits just keep on coming. The Market has much to absorb these days. It was another consequential week with the highly anticipated Fed meeting in the wake of this new banking crisis. It was definitely Market moving. I am well aware that covering interest rates, the financial system and the Fed is seemingly boring. I never want to bore you. But it's really important stuff. You don't think much about your plumbing on a regular basis either; Unless it stops working.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
This was a consequential week on Wall Street. SVB Financial, the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, officially filed chapter 11. In the end, there were no buyers for the bank. Fears spread about contagion. Another bank, just up Highway 101 became the next focus. First Republic received a $30 Billion lifeline from the biggest banks on Wall Street. One could argue, the $30 Billion was merely a return of the deposits that fled the bank last week. It's been a gut-wrenching go. The US financial system is being tested again.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 More Market Turbulence - Another Rapid Rundown 5:44
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5:44The Market ran into a brick wall this week. That wall came in the form of 4% on the 10-Year Treasury yield. Upon impact, stocks and bonds went in opposite directions and fast. Stocks fell sharply. Bonds rallied. That is quite different from last year, when both declined together. It was pretty rare.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
90,000 people flocked to Barcelona this week for the Mobile World Congress. The annual event brings together industry leaders and innovators to present their latest creations and share their vision of the future. The 2023 theme is "Velocity: Unleashing Tomorrow's Technology – Today." Topics ranged from 5G and smartphones as well as other smart devices. Robotic dogs and tea makers, not to mention virtual air taxis, showed up too. The call for flying taxis in circulation by 2025 was repeated. It sounds like it might start in South Korea first.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
These 2020s sure have been beyond eventful, don't you think? And we've only entered year 4. Throughout history, we have faced inflation and economic slowdowns. We've experienced political and social division and unrest. We've also struggled through hot and cold wars. They just haven't all occurred simultaneously; Until the 2020s. We are experiencing a unique environment with many cross-currents right now. The Market is navigating them all, like a long whitewater stretch with class 5 rapids. Those of you who know, know.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Inflation Update: Hard-Landing, Soft-Landing, No-Landing? 8:13
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8:13It's been quite a start to the year for the Market. What a difference 2 months makes. Nobody wanted stocks as 2022 concluded. Sentiment was so sour. Inflation was crippling. A recession seemed imminent. That attitude sure has dissipated. Is it warranted? Let's dig into that.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is all the rage these days. Just this week, Bill Gates grabbed some headlines stating that the advent of AI in language-based search will change our lives. Gates said it will be as significant as the internet itself. That is quite a statement from someone who has spent the majority of his life centered within the Digital Revolution.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Earnings, the Economy & the Fed - Another Rapid Rundown 16:01
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16:01Let's start with this: It was the best January for the Stock Market since Covid. Taking it a step further, the Tech-heavy NASDAQ had its best start to the year since 2001. Then there's this: February has started off even stronger than January. There's still a tough road ahead in 2023, but it sure is nice seeing all this green on the screen again, don't you think?…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The United States hit a ceiling in which further borrowing is no longer permissible. It can borrow no more. Defaulting on its debt is officially possible. Formal notice was given to Congress by the Secretary of the Treasury. She estimates we have until June to address it before crisis sets in.
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Scoreboard - Earnings Season, A Dozen Eggs & Playoff Time 9:53
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9:53After a dismal 2022 for investors, the start to 2023 brought some green to the Market, not to mention a whole lot of rain to the Bay. It is Friday the 13th in the 2020s. We have to stay nimble and on our toes. You never know what's coming next… Both stocks and bonds have been in rally mode. The stocks that got beat up the most last year have largely been leading the charge in this young year. The Dow and S&P logged back-to-back weekly gains. It has been nice to see this reversion. We don't think it lasts though. There's more work to be done in our minds to establish a defined bottom for the Stock Market. It's a process. We are prepared for more volatile price action in 2023, but we sure are enjoying this burst of green to start the year.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The Year 2022 - Good Riddance; Hello 2023! 9:15
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9:152022 comes to an end. Good riddance. It was an eventful year, in global proportions, and a really tough one for investors. Here's a bit of a summary of what went down in 2022: It started out well for the Bulls but proved to be a huge fake out. The first trading day of 2022 resulted in a historic day for the US Stock Market. It hit another fresh, all-time high. That was a theme throughout 2021. Apple became the first company in history to reach a $3 Trillion value. Asset prices across the country soared. Euphoria was rampant. Then it reversed hard. A Bear Market took over. The Bear had a tight grip on stocks the whole year. The S&P fell nearly 20%. The Tech-heavy NAS fared the worst, down 33%. The Bond Market had its worst year ever, and experienced back-to-back decliners for the first time in history. There were few places for investors to hide. Bedell Frazier played aggressive defense the whole year to protect portfolios and minimize declines.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
'Twas the night before Christmas, And all through the street, Not a creature was stirring, Not even a Musk tweet...
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
The Market got caught offsides this week. It happens often when trying to anticipate something that doesn't pan out. It's actually the case with most any competitive environment. People looking for an advantage tend to jump the gun, as they say. It certainly occurs in sports. Aggressive activity almost always finds someone caught offsides at some point. The Dow and S&P saw a sharp sell-off to close out the week after the Fed dug in on its higher-for-longer interest rate campaign. The Fed seems to be ignoring the economic slowdown upon us. The Stock Market had been rallying of late in anticipation of a Fed pause early in the new year. The Bond Market still thinks it happens. In fact, the Bond Market thinks the Fed will not only pause, but cut rates in '23 because recession seems all but inevitable. The yield on the 10-Year keeps sliding in December, currently below 3.5%, sending bond prices higher. The Yield Curve remains inverted, and the 30-Year yield is nearly identical to the 10-Year and much lower than the front-end of the curve. That's always a sign of trouble ahead. It's just never clear when. The Bond Market keeps signaling the Fed is making a mistake. The Fed is making a soft landing harder to happen. The Bond Market is usually right.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Wouldn't you think that Corporate America and America's Government would have a healthy and collaborative relationship? I suspect it's a very naïve question to pose, but these 2 giant institutions clearly need each other. There is quite an overlap between their respective stakeholders. Besides, people in the White House and Congress are consumers too. Business leaders and policymakers have shown over time that they can get along. But the relationship is complicated. It's been that way for a while. The Business Roundtable met in our nation's Capital this week. It marked the 50th anniversary for the organization. Founded in 1972, the Roundtable is a group of American CEOs that come together from a broad spectrum of industries to "promote a thriving US Economy and expanded opportunity for all Americans through sound public policy." Members work closely with policymakers from both political parties in Washington to "advance sound economic policies to spur job creation, expand opportunity and strengthen US competitiveness." It's an important group with a noble cause.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Americans keep spending. Despite the inflationary pressures which seemingly lead to a path towards recession, Americans keep spending. The Consumer accounts for nearly 70% of the US Economy. It matters big time. The elevated spending is keeping the Market and the Economy afloat. This is not recessionary behavior. The Stock Market had another wild week, as it tries to anticipate 2023. The Fed Chair put a charge into stocks on Wednesday when he indicated some slowing of the aggressive rate hike campaign could be ahead. Bonds rallied too as yields fell. He said a soft-landing is still doable. It's all tied to inflation and jobs. November closed with a powerful rally, marking a 5% gain for the S&P on the month. In fact, it posted back-to-back monthly gains for the first time since August of 2021. It didn't last. The November Job Report put a dent in the rally. But a midday reversal Friday made it barely noticeable.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The American Consumer & the Market’s Rusty Door 9:38
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9:38There is a keen focus on the American Consumer these days. With inflation at 4-decade highs and the Federal Reserve spiking interest rates, the US Economy is slowing to stall speed. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Needless to say, the American Consumer is the economic engine. So far, they're hanging in there. Americans seem to have started spending for the Holidays. Amazon held its first-ever October Prime Day and many retailers have already initiated Black Friday sales. October retail sales were reported this week. The headline number came in hotter than expected and September was revised upward. Retail sales in October rose 1.3% month-over-month. That beat the estimate of 1.0%. It was the largest monthly increase since February and was up a whopping 8.3% from a year ago. These numbers sound fantastic on the face of it. But it depends on how you look at it. Headlines can be quite misleading. Remember, inflation has been running near 8% this year. Higher prices have been the biggest driver of the spending increases. Units sold in October was basically flat. We Americans have been spending more and getting less. Consumers are stretched. That's been a big theme in 2022...…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The State of America - Prevailing Optimism 10:09
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10:09Things have felt pretty grim in America. That feeling is everywhere. This past month I've traveled from coast-to-coast and in between. You can see and feel the angst. Sentiment has seldom been as sour as seen in 2022. Investor confidence has reached basement-level lows. The political divide in our nation clearly plays a role in it. The one thing that Democrats and Republicans agree on is the belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction. They just defiantly disagree on the cause. They blame the other. That has been the state of America. But there's always that prevailing optimism; There's hope. Just when you think all is lost, a spark can turn things around. That's what this week felt like; At least to me. The 2022 midterms had some surprises, which could lead to more stability in Washington. I stress the word "could" because of course we're talking about Washington. The other factor driving optimism for better days ahead was the declining rate of inflation which has draped the American people. Price increases are falling. Some reprieve could be around the corner. That's the signal the Market sent this week.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Midterms & The Market – “It’s the Economy, Stupid” 8:56
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8:56The Dow rallied 14% in October, marking the biggest monthly move since the 1970s. Price action has been choppy. Volatility continued into November, a theme we've been accustomed to in 2022. Interest rates jumped again, as expected, with the Fed sticking with its hiking campaign. Another 3/4-point rate hike came this week. Inflation is still public enemy #1. Fed Chair Powell said the Labor Market is still overheated and said the Fed does not see any signs of softening yet. That was confirmed Friday with another strong job report for October, though the unemployment rate ticked up a bit. The Market took the news in stride while stocks continued their wild ride. This, ahead of one of the most anticipated events on the calendar: The 2022 midterm elections.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Report Cards for Corporate America - A Rapid Rundown 9:57
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9:57Earnings drive stock prices. Profit growth is the fuel for Corporate America. That's the long-term Market theme. However, the Fed has been the greatest impact on the Market in 2022. That will change at some point, and fundamentals will take over again. It changed a little already. Earnings took center stage this week, as investors study the facts of how some of the largest companies in the Stock Market are navigating this challenging environment. Earnings Season brings a lot to learn about the present and the future. We sure learned a lot. 165 companies, representing nearly half of the total value of the S&P 500 index submitted their report cards this week. It included all of the Big Tech names. The Top 5 companies account for 20% of the S&P Market Cap and 15% of earnings. This week mattered. It mattered a lot.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 One if by Land, Two if by Sea - Studying Signals 7:51
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7:51I was in Boston this week for a CEO Summit for the investment industry. Firms from across the country were represented with discussions ranging from the current state and outlook for the Market, to the midterms, the Economy and the Financial Services industry at large. The meeting topics drilled down on the future of work, with a substantial debate about the value of in-office versus virtual activity. No surprise, beliefs are strong and broad on the subject. We also discussed the role that cryptocurrencies and the metaverse might play for generations to come. We even had a professor lecture on neuroscience and applications in the business world. We studied signals to better understand our audience. It was quite an event.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
This was sort of an important week. There have been a lot of them in 2022, but this one was a standout for investors. We are always looking for positive signals. 2022 has brought few. But there are some. October started out with a bang and some big gains. The first 2 days brought a 6% rally. The bad news: It has since given them up. The good news: Rallies are showing up. Something significant happened Thursday. The Dollar reversed hard and fell despite a really hot inflation report. Bond yields spiked at first, but then also fell. The Bond Market rallied in price with lower yields. The Stock Market reversed big time too. The S&P erased a 70-point decline with a nearly 100-point gain Thursday. The Dow saw a 1500-point swing to close up 800+. It was what's called an outside reversal day. Those are generally bullish.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Good riddance; This week. This month. This quarter. September has historically been the worst month on the calendar for stocks. It sure lived up to its reputation this year. On to October and Q4. September was bad for bonds too. Yields jumped as the Fed doubled and even tripled down on its commitment to combat inflation at all costs. Demand has been destroyed. That is precisely the Fed's goal. The costs are racking up. Significant damage has been done to the capital markets. The Dollar has spiked against every foreign currency. Rising yields and the strong Dollar have a chokehold on the Market. Asset prices have collapsed as buyers retreat. 2022 has been a year like few others in modern history. A reprieve will come if and when the Fed relents. The Market has sounded the alarm.…
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1 What Is the Deal With This Market? Here Are Our Thoughts 13:30
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13:30This brutal Bear Market continues. Summer has moved to Fall. That's a theme right there. Seemingly everything fell this week. Stocks declined. Bonds declined. Gold, Oil, Crypto and most foreign currencies did too. The Dollar is all that has stayed elevated. And it has increased to a level not seen in decades. The runaway Dollar keeps denting asset prices. There have been some wild moves in currencies. A rising Dollar and rising rates put a squeeze on risk assets like stocks. The rising Dollar is also an indication that, as tough as things are in America, it's in much better shape than anywhere else in the world. Let's start with that.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
This was a tough week for the Bulls. There's no other way to slice it. The Bull-Bear tug-of-war continues. The Bear definitely took the higher ground. Bear Markets are a necessary part of the cycle. They're never fun. Inflation is still a big problem. Any hopes that peaking prices were behind us and the Fed is getting ready to pause its tightening campaign, were completely dashed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 8.3% in August. That's a year-over-year number. Importantly, it has fallen for 2 straight months. It's just not falling as fast as expected. Inflation may have peaked at 9.1% in June. Unfortunately, it's staying stubbornly high. Energy was down another 5%, extending last month's 4.6% decline. Gasoline was down 10%, marking 95 straight daily declines. Everything else is up. Food prices were up 0.8% in just a month. That's really high. But it's down from July's 1.1% increase. Food prices have spiked 11.4% since last Summer. That's the biggest annual increase since 1979.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 The Power of Power – Water, Energy & Infrastructure 14:53
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14:53The mercury level hit 101 in San Francisco this week. It was 104 degrees in London over the Summer. There is too much water in the south. Not enough out west. Rivers are running dry around the globe. We are living in the age of extremes. Planet Earth keeps sending messages. Challenges need solutions. There's no time like the present to act.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Labor Day, The Future of Work and a Bull/Bear Battle 8:07
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8:07Labor Day weekend: It’s the unofficial end to Summer. It’s not like it used to be though. Most schools are already back in session. I am no fan of that. School should start on the first Tuesday in September. That’s what I think. I can’t be alone. But Labor Day still represents the final weekend of mass activity at the beach, the lake, or the mountains before settling in for Fall and the mad dash to year-end. It’s going to be a hot one too. The August heat is sticking around in September.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
Summer volatility sure has a grip on the Market. It’s been that way all year. A 20% decline for the first half of the year was followed by a 19% rally midway through August. The Tech-heavy NAS was up over 20%. That rally stalled a week ago, but saw a second wind this week, only to be turned back again. It came to a screeching halt on Friday and reversed lower. The Dow fell 1,000 points. The S&P was down 3.3%. The NASDAQ was down 4%. The Friday sell-off was driven by activity in a small Rocky Mountain town called Jackson.…
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Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling
1 Winning The 21st Century – Why Taiwan Matters 18:14
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18:14You no doubt heard there was great controversy over the recent visit by America’s Speaker of the House to Taiwan. China did not like it. China did not like it one bit. The situation created a bit of a standoff. Neither side wanted to show weakness. It was a moment. The moment has passed. But the significance is present and quite important. Were you wondering what the commotion was about? You definitely weren’t alone. Taiwan was one of the most frequently searched words on Google early in the month of August. I’ve had a number of people ask me to cover this subject. What does Taiwan mean to the Market? Why is it that Taiwan matters so much? It’s a pretty complex topic. It goes back a while. But like anything, it’s really important to understand the “why” so we can deal with the “what.” This is my endeavor to frame the situation around Taiwan and where it might be headed.…
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