CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam's series Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day in the United States and across the globe. The podcast series provides a deeper dive into complex topics and frames the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.
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Copper output has been stagnating or declining since 2015, with the pandemic causing mine closures in top producer Chile.
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Do options skews in Treasuries provide any guidance on market trend? We look into whether extreme downside skews signal a buying opportunity.
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Oil: Are Options Skews Reliable Price Indicators?
10:13
10:13
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10:13
Investors in the oil market seem to be more concerned over a market slump than a rally, as reflected in out-of-the-money options skews. Were they right?
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Oil: Are Options Signaling Long-Term Uncertainty?
12:06
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12:06
Oil prices have bounced off their recent lows but the implied volatility in options is indicating uncertainty in the market's direction over the long term.
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Brexit: Classic Case of an Approaching Major Event Risk
8:04
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8:04
Outcome of talks for UK's exit from the European Union under Brexit presents a classic case of event risk that could reach a climax in November.
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Trade War Fallout Reverberates Through Markets, Economy
7:58
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7:58
Large-cap U.S. stocks are much more vulnerable to the fallout from the trade war between the U.S. and China because of their complex global supply chains.
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Oil: As Price Tops $70, Will Shale Producers Ramp Up Output?
13:44
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13:44
As crude oil prices top $70 per barrel amid escalating Mideast geopolitical risk premium, will shale producers ramp up output as they lock in prices?
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Fed's Challenges as its Steers Away From Emergency Policies
6:01
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6:01
The Fed faces several key challenges as it charts a new monetary course in the aftermath of the emergency policies put in place during the Bernanke era.
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Li Keqiang Index: China's Alternative Growth Barometer
18:39
18:39
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18:39
An index named for China's prime minister seems to provide better insight into its growth than official GDP. What's in store for the world's No. 2 economy.
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Phase Transitions and the Rise in Market Volatility
12:51
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12:51
From growing U.S. budget deficits to potential trade wars and the end of quantitative easing, several "phase transitions" could fire up market volatility.
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global-trade-disputes-take-center-stage-in-2018
10:42
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10:42
From U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum to the uncertain future of NAFTA and tough Brexit negotiations, trade issues are taking center stage in 2018.
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Bitcoin: Supply Growth, Mining Difficulty and Prospects in 2018
28:01
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28:01
Bitcoin supply is likely to grow by less than 5% in 2018 as the cryptocurrency edges closer to its production cap and as mining difficulty rises sharply.
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Ag Hedging Costs Could Spike if La Niña Strikes
8:37
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8:37
Grain markets are not overly concerned of a La Niña, with options implied volatility near lows, but hedging costs could spike quickly if the weather bites.
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Quantitative Easing: The Way Out for Central Banks
9:50
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9:50
How will central banks' unwinding of quantitative easing, starting with the Federal Reserve, impact financial markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan.
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Impact of Low Inflation Expectations on Wages
11:19
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11:19
The lackluster growth in U.S. wages can be attributed, in part, to expectations of low inflation, which has remained subdued for more than two decades.
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Oil: U.S. Output and OPEC Production Cuts
5:48
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The trajectory of oil prices will depend on whether U.S. inventories continue to fall, OPEC members adhere to output cuts, and if U.S. production rises.
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China: Does Yield Curve Portend a Recession?
7:56
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Is China heading toward a recession? It's nascent yield curve is pointing to a possible major slowdown in the world's second-largest economy in mid-2018.
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The Differing Nature of Event Risk
11:21
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11:21
The Brexit vote in Britain and the presidential election in the United States offer a glimpse into the differing nature of event risk that drives markets.
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Volatility is Lethargic Even as Uncertainty Abounds
12:22
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12:22
Uncertainty and volatility are different risk management concepts. More uncertainty does not necessarily mean more volatile markets, as in the U.S.
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Could Fed Rate Hikes Trigger Flight to Quality?
17:35
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17:35
As interest rates in the United States go higher over the next two years, will it trigger a flight to quality into bonds on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean?
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The Conundrum of Slow Growth and Tight Labor Market
18:13
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18:13
The U.S. economy is a conundrum as it grows moderately at around 2% a year even as the unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in 16 years.
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Fed Sets Out To Shrink Balance Sheet by Half
10:25
10:25
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10:25
The Federal Reserve's approach to reducing its massive balance sheet is to proceed very slowly so it does not disrupt markets, especially home mortgages.
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French Election: Outcome Could Impact Euro, EU
14:15
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14:15
The French go to the polls on May 7 to elect a president, and the outcome could determine the future of the EU, impact the euro and affect Brexit talks.
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Managing Risks and Challenges in Picking Stocks
8:09
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8:09
Among asset managers, many are benchmarked to major equity indexes. Here are four reasons why it can be difficult to consistently outperform these indexes.
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Gold: About to Break Out of Lull in Volatility?
15:34
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15:34
The lack of volatility in gold has seen options prices slump, but is the market about to change course as Congress weighs in on major Trump initiatives?
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Can Yield Curve Foretell a Coming Recession
19:04
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19:04
The bond yield curve in relation to short-term rates is often a reliable indicator of a recession, and at the moment it is flashing the all-clear sign.
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What Will a Post-Yellen Fed Look Like in 2018?
8:47
8:47
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Janet Yellen's tenure as Fed Chair comes to a close next year, providing the Trump administration the opportunity to leave its imprint on the central bank.
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Copper: Will Fed Rate Hikes Temper Rally?
16:27
16:27
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16:27
Copper's blistering rally coincides with the Fed gearing up for multiple rate hikes in 2017. Will higher borrowing costs impact the red metal's performance?
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Agriculture: El Niño, La Niña and Trade Policies
7:27
7:27
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7:27
The weather outlook seems benign for crops like corn and soybeans in the Americas this year but shifts in U.S. trade policies could fuel market volatility.
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Will European Elections Strengthen Unity or Deepen Divide?
18:25
18:25
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18:25
Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany on the heels of the surprise 'Brexit' vote could either strengthen European unity or deepen the divide.
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Efficient U.S. shale producers a challenge for OPEC
7:55
7:55
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7:55
Can OPEC's latest output cuts keep oil prices afloat? Cost-efficient shale producers in the United States will play a big role in the market's direction.
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Will Fed Change its Policy on Reinvestment?
10:56
10:56
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10:56
With about a year left on the job, will the Fed's Janet Yellen keep with the tradition of handing over a clean slate by shrinking its mighty balance sheet?
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U.S. Tax Cuts and Spurring Economic Growth
17:24
17:24
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17:24
Listen to CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam discuss the impact of U.S. tax cuts in stimulating growth in an economy well past the drag of a recess.
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