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Putting Tariffs and Rising Interest Rates in Perspective | LPL Market Signals
Manage episode 451014639 series 2440914
Indhold leveret af Market Signals by LPL Financial. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Market Signals by LPL Financial eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.
In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum, as they recap last week’s stock market decline, share some perspective on the latest bond market selloff, and highlight some things that may be different with Trump’s trade policy this time around. Stocks fell last week, led down by healthcare and small caps. Markets were held back by rising rates after Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates, while the prospects for RFK Jr. as President-elect Trump’s Healthcare Secretary rattled vaccine makers. Since the September 16 low, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by over 0.80%. The bulk of the move higher is due to better economic data that has pushed out the need for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. The strategists believe markets are better aligned with likely Fed cuts so, the bulk of the move higher in bond yields could be behind us. The strategists then put Trump’s tariffs into perspective by looking back at how much of the so-called “tax” was paid by consumers and how much was absorbed by producers and international manufacturers. Tracking: #659651
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314 episoder
Manage episode 451014639 series 2440914
Indhold leveret af Market Signals by LPL Financial. Alt podcastindhold inklusive episoder, grafik og podcastbeskrivelser uploades og leveres direkte af Market Signals by LPL Financial eller deres podcastplatformspartner. Hvis du mener, at nogen bruger dit ophavsretligt beskyttede værk uden din tilladelse, kan du følge processen beskrevet her https://da.player.fm/legal.
In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum, as they recap last week’s stock market decline, share some perspective on the latest bond market selloff, and highlight some things that may be different with Trump’s trade policy this time around. Stocks fell last week, led down by healthcare and small caps. Markets were held back by rising rates after Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates, while the prospects for RFK Jr. as President-elect Trump’s Healthcare Secretary rattled vaccine makers. Since the September 16 low, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by over 0.80%. The bulk of the move higher is due to better economic data that has pushed out the need for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. The strategists believe markets are better aligned with likely Fed cuts so, the bulk of the move higher in bond yields could be behind us. The strategists then put Trump’s tariffs into perspective by looking back at how much of the so-called “tax” was paid by consumers and how much was absorbed by producers and international manufacturers. Tracking: #659651
…
continue reading
314 episoder
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1 Charts Say Don’t Buy the Dip in Stocks Just Yet | LPL Market Signals 45:46
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist to recap a down week for stocks that could’ve been worse, discuss recent technical damage to the S&P 500 and explain why they would wait to buy the dip, recap fourth quarter earnings, and preview a busy week ahead. Tracking: #703657…

1 Key Market Undercurrents Keep Stocks Stuck in a Range | LPL Market Signals 46:24
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder is joined by Head of Macro Strategy, Kristian Kerr, to recap a week with record highs and a growth scare, identify several interesting market undercurrents keeping stocks rangebound, and discuss the U.S. government debt problem. Tracking #700496…

1 Assessing Tariff Impact on Metals and Interest Rates | LPL Market Signals 43:41
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum to discuss the market’s reaction to the latest round of tariff and inflation news, how metals have responded, and if the bond market will mirror President Trump’s first term in office. Tracking #697916…

1 A Balanced Take on the Stock Market Outlook for 2025 | LPL Market Signals 40:21
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder is joined by Chief Economist Dr. Jeffrey Roach to offer a balanced take on the stock market outlook for 2025 by highlighting five arguments for the bulls and five for the bears. Tracking: #694770

1 Top 10 Trump Tariff Takeaways | LPL Market Signals 45:43
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and LPL Head of Macro Strategy Kristian Kerr highlight 10 takeaways on the tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration over the weekend, defend American Exceptionalism, and preview the week ahead. Tracking: #691349…

1 Reassuring Messages From The Bond Market | LPL Market Signals 40:13
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum to provide some perspective on the DeepSeek-driven market selloff, share some reassuring messages from the bond market, and preview a very busy week of economic data, central bank announcements and earnings reports. Tracking #687913…

1 Historical Parallels to 2024 and Technical Takes on Last Week's Rally | LPL Market Signals 35:57
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LPL Research provides insights on last week’s market rally, identifies historical stock market parallels to 2024, and previews Q4 earnings season. Tracking #: 685236

1 Fed Still Likely to Cut Rates in 2025 Despite the Strong Jobs Report | LPL Market Signals 33:34
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Dr. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist, discuss the latest move higher in interest rates, dissect Friday’s jobs report, explain why the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt after last week’s selloff, and preview this week’s economic calendar. Tracking #: 681641…

1 LPL Research Recommendations Report Card for 2024 | LPL Market Signals 34:15
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In the latest Market Signals podcast, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discuss the lack of a Santa Claus rally, review LPL Research’s winning and losing recommendations from 2024, and preview this week’s jobs report. Tracking: #678156

1 Is the Stock Market Sell-Off Nearly Over? | LPL Market Signals 37:13
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, as they discuss whether Santa Claus visited markets, review several charts to help assess when this latest pullback might find support, and highlight four keys to a strong stock market in 2025. Stocks moved lower Friday, putting the Santa Claus rally in jeopardy. The strategists discuss what a weak finish to the year could mean for January and 2025. Next, the strategists review some charts to help assess the latest technical damage and opine on how much further the latest sell-off may have to go. The strategists closed with a quick preview of the week ahead and the sparse economic calendar. Tracking: #675956…

1 2024: The Year in Charts | LPL Market Signals 37:15
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists highlight seven charts that capture the market environment in 2024. They also weigh in on last week’s market decline amid the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness and discuss whether Santa Claus will visit the equity markets this week. Stocks moved lower last week as the markets were caught off guard by the hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Technology held up relatively well while energy and small cap stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure. The strategists highlight several key charts of 2024, including how mega caps have dominated performance once again this year, and discuss why small caps have struggled to keep up. They further note why this year’s best-performing sector could continue to outperform in 2025 and how gold has managed to outperform stocks, despite a risk-on and higher rate backdrop. The strategists closed with a quick preview of this week’s holiday-shortened economic calendar and a reminder that the seven-day Santa Claus rally period begins on Christmas Eve. Tracking #: #674774…

1 Don’t Fear Fixed Income in 2025 | LPL Market Signals 38:27
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum, as they discuss the rare streak of negative market breadth readings, share their bond market outlook for 2025, and preview the week ahead featuring the last Federal Reserve meeting of 2024. Stocks pulled back modestly last week, but the biggest story was the 10-day streak of negative breadth readings. Gains in big tech stocks have helped support the S&P 500 Index in recent weeks, but the strategists point out that the lack of broad participation points to a tired rally. Next, the strategists discussed what fixed income investors could experience in 2025. While the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle will influence longer-term rates, a still flat U.S. Treasury yield curve and elevated levels of Treasury supply expected next year could keep rates around current levels. However, income-oriented investors have a plethora of opportunities to build portfolios that can generate income levels in excess of 5%. The strategists close with a quick preview of this week’s Fed meeting where the comments from Jerome Powell and the Committee may matter more to markets than the fully expected rate cut or updated economic forecasts. Tracking: #671737…

1 Expect Slower Economic Growth and Modest Stock Market Gains in 2025 | LPL Market Signals 33:31
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists share their economic and stock market outlook for 2025, taken from the newly released Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism available on LPL.com's research page. They also recap last week’s tech-led market advance and preview the week ahead. The strategists highlight several key economic themes for 2025: • Slowing growth, not recession • Capital investment could provide support • Labor market slowly downshifts • Inflation remains historically elevated • Fed will cut rates at a slower pace The strategists then highlight these stock market themes for 2025: • Modest mid-to-high-single digit returns on strong earnings growth • Upside could come from lower interest rates, productivity gains or market-friendly policy changes • Risks include a potential pronounced economic slowdown, reaccelerating inflation, rate volatility, or geopolitical threats. • Given stretched investor sentiment and rich valuations, we favor buying dips. The strategists close with a brief preview of the week ahead, highlighted by inflation data and European Central bank rate decision. Tracking: #668622…

1 Talking Geopolitics and Markets | LPL Market Signals 44:19
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists recap a strong November for stocks, discuss some ways geopolitics are affecting currency and commodity markets, and preview Friday’s jobs report. Stocks enjoyed strong November returns, led by small caps. Small caps are benefiting from prospects of lower taxes and America First trade policy but are also interest rate sensitive and Fed rate cuts have been delayed. Next, the strategists discuss how the U.S. dollar may react to global central bank policy and president-elect Trump’s trade policy. The strategists then discuss how some of the geopolitical threats in the Mideast and Ukraine are affecting oil. The strategists close with thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting timetable and a preview of Friday’s jobs report. Job growth is expected to rebound after weather and strikes depressed job gains in October. Tracking # 665454…

1 Stocks Bounce Back on Broadening Out | LPL Market Signals 41:53
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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, as they recap last week’s strong bounce back for stocks, highlight the improving market breadth, and provide some perspective on market concentration. Stocks rose solidly last week, rising all five days. It wasn’t about the mega-caps this week as a broadening out lifted large cap equity benchmarks. The strategists reviewed several charts and discussed how broad participation underpinned the latest breakout to new highs on the S&P 500. They highlight how this rotation has also been evident in small caps but note the current technical evidence does not yet support a shift toward sustainable outperformance of small caps over large caps. Given the uptick in interest rate volatility, they also discuss the technical setup for 10-year Treasury yields, including key support and resistance levels. Next, the strategists provide historical perspective on the high degree of concentration in the stock market today. The shift toward passive investments has been a big reason why. Concentration by itself isn’t a reason for a market correction, but it could amplify an eventual selloff. The strategists wrap up with a preview of the week ahead. Minutes from the November Fed meeting, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and a big batch of Treasury auctions will keep markets focused on interest rates. Tracking: #663336…
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