The Weekly Briefing From Capital Economics podcast

#Trading #Business #David Wilder #Economics #Global Economy #Macroeconomics #Central Banking #Rated #Inflation #Gdp

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The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

173 episoder

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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updated for 6 dage siden

Del

Serier hjem•Feed

173 episoder

#Trading #Business #David Wilder #Economics #Global Economy #Macroeconomics #Central Banking #Rated #Inflation #Gdp

Alle episoder

1
Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions 26:16

for 6 dage siden26:16

26:16

Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it’s a CPI report that’s given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September’s inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect? In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the Fed is likely to stay cautious, previews key upcoming central bank meetings, and looks ahead to next week’s much-anticipated Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea. Also on the show, the US Treasury’s new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil exporters have brought a key risk to our below-consensus oil price forecasts to the fore. Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how much this move could shake up the outlook – and whether Trump will actually follow through with full enforcement. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: China ramping up use of export controls Drop-In: Argentina’s mid-term elections – A referendum on Milei’s reforms Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook…

1
US–China trade war – What’s driving the latest escalation 35:40

for 13 dage siden35:40

35:40

In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills over into the global economy? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard discuss the past, present and future of US–China relations. They explore key questions, including: • What’s driving Beijing’s new controls on rare earths, and whether the government could reverse course • What’s wrong with US perceptions of China’s economic health – and why those perceptions could prove dangerous • How the global economy will need to keep adjusting to a fracturing US-China relationship Analysis referenced in this episode The fracturing of the Global Economy US may revive plans to curb financial ties with China Global Economics Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy CAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weak China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity…

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The AI frenzy, Japan’s market shock and France’s political storm 30:04

for 20 dage siden30:04

30:04

How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It’s a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there’s more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China’s toughest moves yet to control rare earth exports. Also on the show, six months after Liberation Day, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how predictions of the dollar’s demise have played out and unpacks the market’s striking response to Japan’s new LDP leader. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Watch: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed’s next chapter Read: China tightens its grip on rare earths (again) Register: Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don’t think the AI equities boom is over Read: Japan coalition talks Read: What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan?…

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Global Outlook: US leads, Europe lags | China’s equities boom 32:19

for 27 dage siden32:19

32:19

Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump’s policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, by contrast, the optimism seen earlier this year has faded as structural headwinds continue to hold growth back. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores how AI may be transforming America’s potential, even as Europe struggles with long-standing weaknesses. Plus, a decade on from a devastating market crash, Asia-Pacific Markets head Thomas Mathews unpacks what’s been driving China’s equity boom this year – despite the broader economic weakness – and how sustainable it really is. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Global Economic Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy Drop-In: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed’s next chapter Drop-In: China Outlook – Can policy reverse economic weakness? The economic and market impact of AI More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going…

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Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue 29:08

for 5 weeks siden29:08

29:08

Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back? Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to assess Trump’s tariff threats, explain why Stephen Miran’s call for US rates to be halved doesn’t add up, and examine what’s driving the divergence between inflation in the US and Europe/UK. Also on the show, Latin America Economist Kimberley Sperrfechter looks at an extraordinary week in Argentina, where markets have steadied after Washington intervened. What drove the Trump administration to act so forcefully, and will the support work? Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Data: Tariff Impact Model Read: US Tariff Announcement Read: Japanese manufacturers starting to shift production to US Read: Euro-zone inflation risks now to the downside Drop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risks Drop-In: Where is r* heading? Catching up on equilibrium real rates Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes Read: Mapping China’s presence in Latin America…

1
US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts 30:49

for 6 weeks siden30:49

30:49

There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it would fall short of easing the deeper tensions driving the fracturing of the global economy. Also on the show, with crime rising in Latin American countries once seen as relatively safe, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson discusses its economic costs and influence on upcoming elections. Plus, in an exclusive clip from our central bank Drop-In briefing, we look at how the Fed’s latest rate projections compare with ours, and why the Bank of England is growing more sensitive to inflation risks. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Event: Fracturing in the Age of Trump - New York October 2025 Read: China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency Read: Counting the cost of crime in Latin America LatAm Outlook: Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises Watch: Central Bank Drop-In - Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings…

1
US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics 29:40

for 7 weeks siden29:40

29:40

The Fed meets this coming week to decide how much monetary relief the US economy really needs. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing says that, employment data aside, the evidence argues for fewer rate cuts than markets are pricing in. He talks to David Wilder about the health of the economy, whether the surge in AI investment is making a difference, and previews the Bank of England meeting, where the pace of quantitative tightening may be slowed by a still-febrile bond market. Also on the show, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley assesses the oil price outlook in light of the week's geopolitical developments in Qatar and Poland, and ahead of OPEC’s 65th anniversary. Analysis and events referenced in this episode US economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest No more BoE cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next year Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines The economic and market impact of AI Data: GDP Nowcasts OPEC at 65: shifting market dynamics expose frailties…

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US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's world order optics 29:08

for 8 weeks siden29:08

29:08

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles that weak US August Employment report, previews the coming week’s inflation data, talks about what’s been happening in the bond market and explains just what recent get-togethers in China signal about a new world order. Also on the show, ahead of a crunch vote for France’s government, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham talks about why the French political establishment is struggling to break out of its fiscal logjam, and what this all means for the outlook for the government bond market. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s Drop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond markets Drop-In: What’s really holding up the commercial real estate recovery? Fracturing in the Age of Trump - London September 2025 Fracturing in the Age of Trump - New York October 2025…

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Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy 29:03

for 9 weeks siden29:03

29:03

What tensions will yet erupt as the US–China economic relationship unravels? What will the global economy look like in 2040? And what should business and government leaders be doing now to adapt to an era of economic fracturing? The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy is published on 28 August. In this special episode, author and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the book’s key lessons and to show how today’s headlines reveal the deeper forces driving economic fracturing. Explore Capital Economics' data and analysis on global economic fracturing and sign up for our fracturing events this September/October: Singapore (3rd Sept) Hong Kong (4th Sept) London (17th Sept) New York (9th Oct)…

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A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs slowdown 27:30

for 10 weeks siden27:30

27:30

China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist Leah Fahy talks to David Wilder about the latest in China’s rebalancing story and what it means for the trajectory of its economic growth. Also in this episode: July’s US jobs report was a shock, but it’s part of a wider slowdown across advanced economies. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown explains what’s driving the weakness and how it could shape central bank decisions ahead. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: Read: Chinese overcapacity is a disinflationary gift and a geopolitical threat Read: Millions in China are about to see their take-home pay fall Read: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction Read: Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US Data: US Labour Market Data: UK Labour Market Indicators Key Issue: The economic and market impact of AI Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025)…

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China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's climb and India's tariffs hit 41:38

for 11 weeks siden41:38

41:38

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the week’s biggest macro and market questions, including: what could Beijing do after more weak China data? Why tariffs aren’t showing up more in the US economy? How much have the latest inflation reports shifted the Fed’s rate-cut debate – and should the Treasury Secretary be taking shots at central banks? Also: Chief Markets Economist John Higgins on why we’ve lifted our S&P 500 forecasts, the limits of valuation metrics, and the risks markets face from an unpredictable – and increasingly emboldened – president. Plus: In a clip from our online Drop-In client briefing, Shilan Shah on what’s gone wrong in India-US relations and how 50% tariffs could hit India’s economy. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: CAP: Growth slows in Q2 despite resilient industry In-person events: Fracturing in the age of Trump S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next Drop-In: India in Trump’s firing line – What’s at stake for the economy and markets…

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BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking Trump’s manufacturing pledges to task 26:01

for 12 weeks siden26:01

26:01

After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in the US following Donald Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Neil explains what this means for the credibility of official data and what to watch for in the upcoming BLS inflation release, which could prove pivotal for the Fed’s September decision. Plus, Thomas Ryan from our US team looks at why Trump’s promises to restore American manufacturing are likely to fall far short of reality. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: Miran a good pick for the Fed Read: Integrity of economic data safe for now US Drop-In: Are higher tariff rates fuelling inflation – and how should the Fed respond? Data: UK Employment Indicator Read: Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline…

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That big payrolls miss and the US outlook plus AI's energy demands 26:08

for 13 weeks siden26:08

26:08

Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann unpack what the latest data reveal about the health of the US economy, the Fed’s strategy and how markets are reacting. Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands, Climate and Commodities Economist Olivia Cross explains where the supply will come from. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Data: Tariff Impact Model Data: China-US Rerouting dashboard Read: How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Key Issue: The economic and market impact of AI…

1
How the global economy is fracturing under Trump 30:10

for 14 weeks siden30:10

30:10

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved? In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016, how it’s accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include: The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détente How fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms race Whether Trump’s unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: Fracturing under Trump – Register now: Singapore, 3rd September Hong Kong, 4th September London, 17th September New York, 9th October Read: The fracturing of the global economy Read: The US, China and the Fractured Age…

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What if Trump fires Powell? | Global inflation signals and the policy outlook 28:23

for 15 weeks siden28:23

28:23

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through a deluge of DM inflation data to highlight where tariff effects are coming through, where price pressures look too hot and which central banks are best positioned to press on with policy easing. He also talks to David Wilder about what China’s manufacturing overdrive is doing to the global inflation picture. Also on the show, how serious is Donald Trump about forcing out Jerome Powell? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown talks about the market response to the latest attacks on the Fed chief, why forcing him out could prove counterproductive for a president wanting cheaper borrowing costs, and what to watch as the White House steps up the pressure. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Unpacking the latest rate moves Drop-In: Could South Africa be about to see a big bond rally? Read: What happens if Trump fires Powell?…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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'Tariff Man' returns, US-China diverging price risks – and is AI triggering a jobs bloodbath? 33:56

for 16 weeks siden33:56

33:56

Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard provides the view from Beijing. They also explore with David Wilder why inflation is a risk in the US but deflation looms in China, and what policymakers are (and aren’t) doing to fix it. Also on the show: As warnings mount over AI-driven job losses, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood separates hype from reality and explains what’s happening now in labour markets, and what the future may hold. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Data: US-China Trade Rerouting Read: Tackling Chinese overcapacity will require demand-side stimulus Read: Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone Read: The economic and market impact of AI Upcoming Drop-Ins…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Tariffs deadline looms, Trump’s inflammatory tax bill and why deglobalisation isn't nigh 31:36

for 17 weeks siden31:36

31:36

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including: What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiry Whether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in time Why China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreement What’s really troubling about the passage of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill What moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party’s fiscal credibility Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook , including China’s looming slowdown and India’s relative outperformance. Analysis and data referenced in this episode: Data: China-US Trade Rerouting Data: Tariff Impact Model Read: What do tariffs mean for global trade? Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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The global economy's fragile underpinnings plus BYD, DeepSeek and China's productivity problems 32:53

for 18 weeks siden32:53

32:53

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China’s economy. They’re a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government’s industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China’s dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping’s industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China’s economic outlook. Events and analysis referenced in this podcast: Read: China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity Roundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth? Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yet Read: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region’s markets struggle to recover Data: APAC Commercial Property…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Special: A fragile peace takes hold – what next for economies and energy markets? 8:47

for 18 weeks siden8:47

8:47

After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal bill making its way through Congress and the looming expirations of Trump’s tariff pauses. Analysis referenced in this episode Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus Commodities Outlook: Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage 24:58

for 19 weeks siden24:58

24:58

What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation. In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distinction that matters when trying to understand the implications of global crises like this one. Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, joins to explain how markets have been reacting and what kind of volatility to expect as decisions near on US involvement in Israeli strikes, the imposition of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and a crucial vote on US tax cuts in the Senate. Also in this episode, Kiran Raichura, our Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist, previews our new Asia-Pacific CRE coverage, explains why we’re expanding now, what clients can expect, and what our early analysis says about the region’s investment recovery. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios Key Issue: Iran-Israel conflict Drop-In: Russia’s rising macro and market risks as war drags on Roundtable: Opportunities and risks in the shadow of US trade protectionism…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Israel-Iran strikes, the Fed’s next steps, US-China trade talks and more 21:44

for 20 weeks siden21:44

21:44

Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains: Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn’t influence the Fed meeting in the coming week; What the latest inflation data signal about how tariffs are working their way through the global economy; Whether a 'shadow' Fed chairman would tackle Donald Trump's problems with the current incumbent What to make of the past week’s round of US-China talks in London. Also on the show, Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain talks about China’s stranglehold on global rare earths supply, how the demand picture will change in the wake of the latest US-China agreement and why Western governments haven’t done more to find alternatives to Chinese sellers. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: The Israel-Iran escalation and global markets Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact Drop-In: Israel-Iran military strikes – Assessing the global economic implications Firing Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's end Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word Capital Economics Events…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Are tariffs starting to bite? Plus, the economics of rising defence spending 26:10

for 21 weeks siden26:10

26:10

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the latest data to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, including signs that the effects of tariff front-running are now unwinding. He also discusses how businesses are navigating the ongoing uncertainty and why the Bank of England is trailing the ECB in cutting interest rates. Also on the show, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explores what NATO’s proposed push to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP could mean for economic growth, and the fiscal constraints that may stand in the way. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: A European defence revolution? Read: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? Drop-In: India Outlook – Can the economy and markets continue to outperform through 2025? Drop-In: How the UK’s economic backdrop is shaping its fiscal choices Capital Economics Awards…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Tariffs on! Tariffs off! Tariffs on! The latest episode in the trade war saga plus data to track the turmoil 23:10

for 22 weeks siden23:10

23:10

After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on: Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts; How worried the bond market really is about the US fiscal picture; If the US economy is continuing to show resilience in the face of higher tariffs; Whether the post-Liberation day rally in equities has run its course. Also on the show, Justin Chaloner, our Head of Data Economics, explains what our data is showing about the impact of tariffs on global trade and highlights a new data tool that tracks how Chinese exporters are funnelling goods through lower-tariff economies. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Read: Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500 Read: Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? Capital Economics Data Explorer Read: The implications of lower quality UK economic data…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Trump’s EU tariff threat, jittery bond markets, UK macro update, gold’s next steps and more 38:31

for 23 weeks siden38:31

38:31

Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects on the enduring lessons from Liz Truss’s chaotic spell as UK Prime Minister. Also on the show: Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory dissect the UK macro outlook and what's gone wrong with the official data. Hamad Hussain from our Commodities team explains why structural forces are setting gold up for new record highs later this year. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast Data: Tariff Impact Model https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-model Read: Trump threat of 50% tariffs https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/trump-threat-50-tariffs Data: Global Trade Stress Monitor https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/global-trade-stress-monitor Markets Drop-In: Europe’s outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalism https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-europes-outperformance-vs-state-us-exceptionalism Read: Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/gold-prices-take-breather-next-leg Commodities Drop-In: OPEC+ talks, gold’s pullback, metals and tariffs and more https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-opec-talks-golds-pullback-metals-and-tariffs-and-more…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Back from the brink – How the global outlook has brightened (and what can still go wrong) 33:46

for 24 weeks siden33:46

33:46

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn’t convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe’ series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany’s economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc’s biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Global Trade Stress Monitor Capital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China’s expense Capital Daily: Back to the future? Capital Economics Events Data: Global Markets Forecasts The Future of Europe…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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US-China trade talks preview, what to make of that US-UK "deal", and the future of Europe 30:37

for 25 weeks siden30:37

30:37

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend’s pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland. Julian discusses the outlook for China’s exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations. Events and analysis referenced in this episode The Future of Europe Data: Tariff Impact Model Data: China Labour Market Indicator…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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There's a trade war on – why aren't the hard data showing it? 22:45

for 26 weeks siden22:45

22:45

If you’re looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump’s tariffs, you’ll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including: What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren’t telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs; Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact; How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week. Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisions Data: Central Bank Hub Drop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China? Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports? Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Reports of King Dollar’s death – exaggerated or inevitable? 21:23

for 27 weeks siden21:23

21:23

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss: What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs; The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done; Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episode Recording: Is the dollar’s global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaos ANZ Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlook Drop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump’s second term so far https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
The pause is on! What to expect from the global economy during and after Trump's tariffs pause 28:51

for 28 weeks siden28:51

28:51

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including: What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” ends Why we think US growth risks have risen but we still don’t expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflation What curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there’s a US-China trade deal to be done Analysis referenced in this episode: Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhere Read: Is China offloading its dollar assets? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assets Data: Tariff Impact Model (TIM) https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-model Read: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threat Read: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025) https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
It's a US-China trade war, after all 20:09

for 29 weeks siden20:09