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Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US policy making has now become so chaotic, businesses are holding off making decisions. That can only have negative consequences. Firstly, US jobless claims rose modestly last week from the week before but this was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2.23 mln people on these benefits and back up near the October 2021 levels. The current consensus forecasts for tomorrow's release of the February non-farm payrolls is a rise of 160,000. But there might be some downside, if not in tomorrow's data, in the following set. The level of announced job cuts in February jumped to pandemic levels, and prior to that, to GFC levels. The Musk razor gang is getting some of the blame. The January American trade balance of both goods and services came in double the deficit of a year ago and an all-time record. Tariff policies have driven the change. For the year to January, their total trade deficit was -US$982 bln with a real surge from September to January and blowing it out to -3.4% of US GDP and a record high. Overnight the US announced delays on tariffs against Mexico. It is a never ending series of confusing 'definite' signals , none of which inspire confidence or allow for orderly business decision making. With Mexico, the situation has turned on its head in just four days. With Canada, Trump is ignoring what his Commerce Secretary said just one day ago, and US carmakers are in a real bind now. US wholesale inventories rose in January and their inventory to sales ratio rose too, ending a long period of improvement. Folding this data in gives the latest reading of Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for American Q1-2025 performance is now a -2.4% decline. Apart from the pandemic they won't have seen anything quite this dramatic since the GFC. Since its peak in December, the Tesla share price is continuing its fall, and it is only notable today because the value loss now exceeds -US$660 bln in that period. In NZD that is -$1.15 tln! That price is down another -5.6% so far today and filings show Tesla insiders are now selling. Going the other way, Canada's exports and their trade balance came in sharply positive. Exports were up +20% in January from a year ago and their trade surplus was its best since a brief spike in May 2022, and prior to that, best ever. The Malaysian central bank held its key interest rate at 3% for the tenth consecutive review during its overnight meeting, and that was in line with market expectations. In China, nothing meaningful or unexpected has come from their National People's Congress meetings. In Europe, the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the main refinancing rate to 2.65%. It was their sixth cut since the peak in September 2023 of 4.5%. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to +0.9% for 2025 and +1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment. EU retail sales volumes fell -1.6% in January from the same month a year ago. In Australia, tropical cyclone Alfred has slowed its move toward the Brisbane coast but is still generating damage and will do for longer, even if it actually losing some of its destructive power. Tens of thousands of people are without power now. Container freight rates fell another -3% last week from the week before to be -30% lower than year ago levels and now 'only' +76% above pre-pandemic levels. Bulk freight rates were up +13% in the week however but down -36% from a year ago. Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at just over US$2917/oz and little-changed from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc to under US$66/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$69/bbl. Lower expected demand expectations are the reason. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -20 bps at 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.7, and up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price started today at US$90,265 and up a net +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the tariff war mess is getting messier. First up, the overnight dairy auction came in a bit better than the futures market suggested it might. This event offered lower volumes at the back end of the current dairy season, and prices eased just -0.5% in USD terms from the last full event, but were up +1.0% in NZD terms. WMP eased -2.2% and that was as expected but butter and the cheeses made better gains than expected. Buying out of China was modest, but there was raised interest from both Europe and the Middle East. In the circumstances this was a solid overall result. Most other commodity prices are taking sizeable hits from the now-daily tariff-war battles. Behind all this is the expectation of falling demand as the US economy makes a sudden detour into recession . China's retaliation on US agricultural exports have seen sharpish falls in wheat and soybean prices. The impacts of the trade war haven't hit US retail sales yet - unless you think American consumers are stocking up ahead of the inflationary effects. There were up +6.6% from the same week a year ago. But they are showing up in sentiment surveys. Today's release was for the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index , and that retreated notably. This index rose in November, but has essentially retreated since and is now net-negative and a five month low. The American need for more warehousing and higher inventories is driving their logistics industry to a three year high. The components that weigh on productivity are getting the gains. The US is using a "fentanyl crisis" (one actually in retreat and one driven by American demand) as an excuse to impose increased tariffs . That alone will be inflationary. The counter-measure responses by Canada , Mexico , and now China will distort large parts of the American economy, and have global resonances. The US tariffs are expected to raise the costs of American carmakers by more than US$60 bln, and will drive most into losses, and may even kill some (like Stellantis). Car demand is expected to fall -12% in the US as a result of the needed higher prices. Financial markets continue to react in a negative way. They have given up any post-election gains, and more. Things could get much worse quite soon. Congress is nowhere near to agreeing a budget funding deal. Meanwhile across the Pacific, Japanese consumer sentiment is falling back too now, and is back to where it was two years ago. On the Australian east coast Cyclone Alfred is barrelling towards Brisbane and northern NSW. It is expected to make landfall as a category 2 storm late on Thursday or early Friday and would be the first tropical cyclone to impact NSW since Nancy in 1990. Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.19%, down -4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2912/oz and up +US$20 from yesterday. Oil prices are down -US$2/bbl to US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$70.50/bbl. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft. The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -30 bps at 53.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.1, and down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price started today at US$82,930 and down a net -7.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 5.2%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news chaos has consequences, but they seem to be coming faster than many thought. The giant US economy is resilient, but not immune to the consequences of misguided policy decisions. Regular readers will know we regularly track the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signals. Today that has suddenly sifted from expecting a +3.0% Q1-2025 expansion with the data on hand at the start of February, to a sharp -2.8% contraction as the latest data comes in for the US economy. We have been noting the slide in the granular data over the past week or so in these reports. Today there was another from the ISM PMI for February. Specifically, new orders in their factory sector took a sharp turn into contraction as they report demand is weakening fast. The overall PMI rose in this report, but due to production and inventories. Shrinking new order levels are not going to sustained that however. It was a different story for the internationally benchmarked S&P/Markit US factory PMI which is still reporting an expansion, and a good one. But this one isn't supported by the wider series of data over the past few weeks of weak new order levels (other than for aircraft) and rising inventories . Nor the imbalance between household spending and disposable incomes . The Atlanta Fed is signaling these are turning the US growth into reverse. We won't actually know for some weeks yet of course, but it seems the Biden prosperity is being turned into a Trump/Musk contraction. And more uncertainty is on the way. Congress has less than two weeks to extend a federal funding deadline, but lawmakers are arguing over whether the Whitehouse will really spend the money they approve. The February Canadian PMI turned suddenly negative too in response to the tariff war outlook. Later today, the US is expected to impose the threatened tariffs, even though they earlier promised to delay them to the start of April. Consistency and promises are loose ideas in today's Whitehouse. There were a wide set of early factory PMIs for a number of Asian economies and they all showed very little change (and only minor variations around the expansion/contraction fulcrum). This includes reports for Japan (49.0), Malaysia (49.7), Thailand (50.6), Vietnam (49.2) and Taiwan (51.5). The tariff war impact are yet to hit. In fact, Indonesia was a bit of an outlier, recording a very good rise (53.6), but it enabled the overall ASEAN group to record a good rise. India 's PMI's signaled a mild slowdown from their fast expansion rate. Singapore's SIPMM PMI recorded a minor expansion in February. The official China factory PMI came in at 50.2, an improvement for February from January's contraction. This was backed up by the independent Caixin factory PMI which came in with a slightly faster expansion (50.8) in its survey. This is consistent with the US import data for January and suggests the US import data will be very high again in February. In Europe, their inflation rate eased to 2.4% in February, down from a six-month high of 2.5% in January but slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. But there is a wide range, from 1.4% in democratic Denmark to 5.7% in autocratic Hungary. For the EU overall it was running at 2.8%, for the euro area 2.4%. Europe 's overall PMI is still contracting, but the drivers of their contraction eased somewhat in February. In something of a surprise, the TD-Melbourne Institute tracking of inflation and cost of living in Australia reported a -0.2% drop in February from the prior month, after a +0.1% rise in January. Most thought a rise was on the cards. But on an annual basis inflation is still running in the 2-3% range. Also turning negative in February from January was the job ad series from ANZ/Indeed . It was down -1.4% from January, but at lease it wasn't down the -6.9% it was in February 2023 from January 2024. CoreLogic is reporting that the Aussie housing market stabilised in February, with small but consistent house price rises in the month in almost all main centers, rolling back some of the quarterly and annual falls in some of their larger cities. The one RBA rate cut is getting the credit for the sentiment improvement. By the way, it seems the expectation for an Australian election is narrowing to an early even, maybe on April 12 In the face of US mis-steps, policy markers from Canada to China are readying plans for a global downturn. And high on their agendas are looser fiscal and monetary policies to insulate their people from the worst effects. The US is also moving to much looser fiscal policies with large tax cuts for the wealthy, and likely ballooning deficits. We are entering the era of huge distortions, and it is unlikely to be pretty. Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.18%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2892/oz and up +US$35 from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc just on US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just over US$72.50/bbl. Both prices are -US$1 lower than a week ago. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft. The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.3 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday as the USD comes under pressure. Against the Aussie however we are still little-changed at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 53.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.2, essentially unchanged from yesterday. The bitcoin price started today at US$90,059 and down a net +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained high at +/- 3.0%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
1 Gears crunched in downshift global direction 6:57
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Afspil senere Afspil senere Lister Like LikedKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economy seems to be settling back into a low growth phase on the back of the sharp rise in policy uncertainty in the US. But first, in the week ahead we will get our December trade balance update and data on building permits for January. And the first of the quarterly data sets building for our March 19 GDP result for Q4-2024 will come in, this one recording the construction work completed in the quarter. All relatively minor. There will also be another full dairy auction on Wednesday. Internationally the week will end with the US non-farm payrolls report for the US, for February (where a modest gain of +133,000 is now expected), more US PMI data plus factory order data. Tariff action may well overshadow these however. In Europe it will be all about their ECB decisions (expect a -25 bps rate cut), and inflation updates. Australia will release Q4-2024 GDP results, and trade balance data, as will Canada and China. Over the weekend China released its February PMI data and it was not negative. Their official factory PMI shifted back to a very minor expansion (although that is probably being generous). Their services sector is also officially expanding, also minor. And minor as well was the rise in South Korean exports , much less than expected in February. This came off the back of the unexpected January slump, one that was deeper than first reported. Although South Korean export growth been generally trending lower for about a year now, so have their imports, and that allowed them to report their second highest current account surplus ever. India reported Q4-2024 GDP results and those came in at a +6.2% rate, better than the +5.6% in Q3, but just missing analyst estimates of +6.3%. In the US, the widely watched PCE inflation level came in at 2.5% for January, down from 2.6% in December, and back to November's level. (The US CPI rate for January was 3.0%.) From a year ago, personal disposable incomes were up +1.8% and personal expenditures up +3.0%, so this isn't tracking in a favourable direction now. People will notice that and take household budget actions, such as increasing debt or cutting spending. When uncertainty levels are high, spending cutbacks are the more likely. The sharp jerk in trade policy direction has brought sharp changes in American commercial behaviour. First there was a large spike in imports , up 12%, driving their merchandise trade deficit to a mammoth -$US$153 bln in January. That is an all-time record and by a country mile. Secondly, American wholesale inventories jumped in January, especially for consumer goods which were up +2.1% from a year ago. Retail inventories rose even faster, up +5.1%. The Chicago PMI , which was in deep contraction over the December/January period recovered in February, but it is still contracting, just less so. The Trump administration designated importing timber a "national security issue" justifying new tariffs. They also said XRP (Ripple), SOL (Solana), and ADA (Cardano) would be in their new US crypto strategic reserve, jumping the prices of almost all cryptos including bitcoin (and their own personal wealth). North of the border, the good Canadian data continues. This time it is their Q4-2024 GDP growth rate, up +2.6% from a year ago, better than the Q3-2024 growth of +2.2%, and much better than the expected Q4 rate of +1.9%. Driving the rise was rising household spending, rising exports, and rising business investment. Of course, things for Q1-2025 are much more uncertain, although it will be interesting to see the echo of the 'Buy Canadian, Bye Americans' movement on their GDP. Perhaps it may give a Q1 fillip? Global air travel is rising fast. International passenger travel rose +12.4% in January from the same month in 2024. That makes it an all-time high, eclipsing pre-pandemic levels. Asia/Pacific travel rose more than +20%. Meanwhile air cargo traffic rose +3.2% on the same basis, although up +7.5% in the Asia/Pacific region. We should probably note that the coal price has fallen to a four year low, and back to prices it first achieved in 2016. And not only are oil prices lower, there are falls too for zinc, lead and nickel too, all core indicators of global factory demand. Lithium is also having trouble getting back up off the canvas. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.20%, down -3 bps from Saturday at this time, down -22 bps for the week as risk aversion takes hold. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2857/oz and up +US$12 from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$2938/oz so a -US$81 drop since then. Oil prices are little-changed, still just under US$70/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is still just under US$73/bbl. Both prices are -US$1 lower than a week ago. The Kiwi dollar is now at 55.9 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday. That is a -160 bps drop in a week. Against the Aussie however we are still little-changed at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 53.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.2, unchanged from Saturday, down -100 bps for the week. The bitcoin price started today at US$91,401 and up a net +9.2% from this time Saturday on the US crypto reserve news. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.6%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
1 US tariffs bring higher prices, slower growth 5:16
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Afspil senere Afspil senere Lister Like LikedKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news trade and tariffs are in the headlines, but their impact of higher inflation and slower economic activity are just starting to be seen. US initial jobless claims rose sharply last week in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise in five month. In actual terms they were basically unchanged when seasonal factors would have normally brought a good reduction in claims. These initial claim levels are +10% high that year ago levels and there are now 2.17 mln people on these jobless benefits, also much higher than a year ago. US durable goods orders rose +3.1% in January from December, but there was a sharpish revision lower in the December data. The January level is +4.3% higher than year-ago levels. Non-defense capital goods were up +2.2% from a year ago. The second estimate of Q4-2024 GDP came in unchanged from the first at +2.3% growth. It would have been more but they noticed higher inflation in the period which trimmed the rising nominal expansion in the period. Pending home sales in the United States fell -5.2% in January from a year ago, following a -5% drop in December. And today's downbeat American economic data releases extended to the Kansas City Fed factory survey which fell in February, contracting by its most in five months. The US Administration said China will be hit with a new 10% tariff , the latest salvo in the US president's steadily escalating trade fights. That is on top of the earlier 10% already in place. The President also said he intended to move forward with a threatened 25% tax on imports from Canada and Mexico, which is set to come into effect on 4 March. So it is little wonder that inflation expectations are rising among Americans. Tariffs are a tax on yourself , and higher prices either result from more expensive imported goods, or they allow local producers to face much less price competition so those prices rise too. It will be impossible for the US Fed to ignore, and bond markets aren't either. But north of the border, Canada said weekly earnings are rising faster there. They rose +5.8% in December from a year ago in data released overnight, the fastest pace since March 2021. And staying in Canada, the reaction to the endless Trump insults are generating a "Buy Canada, Bye America" surge, and now apps are sprouting up enabling such choices right in shop and supermarket aisles. Apparently there are export markets for such services, especially in Europe. The tracking of consumer and business sentiment in the EU shows it is either holding or moving up in January. Now almost as may are positive as negative, which is the best they have had in almost three years, and slightly better than expected. With all the US tariff news, it will be no surprise to learn that container freight rates fell another -6% last week, taking them -30% lower than year-ago levels, and now only +85% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Usage of the Suez Canal is normalising now too. But bulk cargo rates shot up +32% last week from the week before to be -40% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.29%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2875/oz and down -US$35 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1 at on US$70/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$74/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.5, and down a net -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,968 and -2.3% from this time yesterday. It is currently very much in a bear phase with prices only rising when there is minor volume, but falling sharply when there is high volume. Sellers are choosing their timing, and there are a lot of them. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more data dragging in the US, and more debt plans in China. First up, American mortgage applications fell again last week, and this is despite their benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rate falling further below the 7% level. Lower home loan rates now are not motivating home buyers. And that lack of motivation is really coming through in new home sales , which were down more than -10% in January from December to an annual rate that was -15% below year ago levels. For their new home building industry, this will be a real cause for concern. There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for the 7-year Note and it delivered a median yield of 4.15%, lower than the 4.41% at the equivalent auction a month ago . Demand for these issues is not flagging. In China, they are adding capital to their big state-owned banks, maybe as much a ¥1 tln to the six of them. The funds will be raised by new sovereign bond issues. More debt for the state so that banks can lend more debt to clients. And that could just be the start. Bloomberg is reporting that a key policy adviser said China needs to vastly step up its efforts to cleanse the balance sheets of their local governments, giving them the space needed to support consumer spending and strengthen the economy. He said central government should take on at least ¥20 tln worth of local sovereign debt. For reference ¥1 tln is about NZ$240 bln. ¥20 is NZ$4.8 tln. They are talking real money here. Singapore's industrial production rose +9.1% in January from the same month a year ago in a solid turn up, although the gain was pretty much as analysts had expected. Taiwan revised its Q4-2024 GDP growth rate up to +2.9%, and it was a sharp revision higher from the earlier estimate of +1.8%. That means their economic activity expanded by +4.6% in all of 2024. Australia's monthly CPI inflation indicator rose 2.5% in January, unchanged from the prior month but below market expectations of 2.6%. Despite this, inflation remained at its highest since August. But this monthly update probably won't shake the RBA estimate of acceptable inflation in Q1-2025. And staying in Australia, the latest data available, for Q3-2024 released yesterday, buyers from China were the largest group of foreign investment into Australian housing, recording more than AU$400 mln in approvals. This data was for the period ahead of the Australian ban on temporary residents acquiring established homes and Chinese buyers accounted for 30% of it. You have to say it isn't much of a surge - and since then foreign buyer demand has fallen away. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.27%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2910/oz and recovering +US$16 from yesterday. Oil prices are marginally lower at under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still under US$73/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.9, and little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,928 and down a minor -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading. But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but it was a retreat all the same. The small fall expected for SMP actually came in more pronounced than expected. Both shifts have ended the recent run up in these prices although they probably don't necessarily end the higher trending. Neither correction was enough to unstitch that at this event. But uncertainty is back all the same. US data releases overnight remained resilient. The US retail impulse, as measured by the Redbook survey , held strong, unchanged and up +6.2% from the same week a year ago. The next Richmond Fed factory survey moved up a bit but is now showing an expansion, its most since October 2023. This was a better result than anticipated and in complete contrast to yesterday's Texas survey. The Dallas Fed's services survey eased back, but is still expanding although the trend has turned down mainly because the outlook uncertainty is rising. But none of this data trumped the fast-rising doom mood in the US. The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment was particularly negative. Its reading of consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Although other similar surveys like the PMIs and the University of Michigan one showed the same trend, this latest one was worse and has just compounded the negative mood. Risk aversion sentiment is gripping financial markets today. Wall Street is lower, the US Treasury bond prices are surging (yields falling), yield inversions are returning, and the USD is rising, in the normal reaction to a risk-off mood. Everyone from consumers to the financial market professionals know the US is going the wrong way with its public policy. And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down more than -8% so far today, down -14% in a week and down -20% since the start of the year. The "move-fast-and-break-things" strategy isn't proving to be a good business practice. There was another US Treasury 5yr auction today and the well-supported event delivered a yield of 4.07%, lower than the the 4.29% at the equivalent event a month ago . Elsewhere, Taiwanese retail sales are on the rise, up +5.3% in January from a year ago in a strong showing, much better than expected. Meanwhile, Taiwanese industrial production growth eased, but only back to the levels expected. South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.75% yesterday. This was as expected. It is their third cut since this rate peaked in January 2023 at 3.5%. Their cutting cycle started in October 2024. In China, exports through Hong Kong fell to a one year low in January, and a sharp retreat from December. This is the weakest growth in exports activity after sharp reversals for exports of electrical machinery, and household appliances. In Australia, regulator ASIC is warning of the risks of investing in private markets, a growing trend recently. The opacity of valuations, liquidity and governance has them worried. And as the Aussies get ready for a probably May election, it has been standard to expect the ruling Labor Party to lose, mainly because incumbents are losing elsewhere. But a new poll suggests a change may in fact not happen there. No doubt they are encouraged by the German election where essentially the center held. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.31%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2894/oz and down -US$48 from yesterday. Oil prices are down -US$2 at just under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,309 and down a massive -7.7% from this time yesterday. Bitcoin has dropped about 20% since Trump’s January inauguration, as initial optimism over his crypto-friendly stance fades. Bitcoin wasn't the only crypto to drop. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the fading of confidence in the US is spreading, but trailing the international reputation demise. First up today, the widely-watched Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for the US fell in January from an upwardly revised result for December, suggesting American economic growth decreased to below trend. The personal consumption and housing categories, along with the production sector, both retreated. The Dallas Fed's regional factory survey fell sharply in January from a positive expansion in December to quite a negative contraction in this latest survey. New orders led the shift lower, while the company outlook index fell 24 points and the outlook uncertainty index surged to a seven-month high of 29.2 from nearly zero last month. There are some suddenly worried folks in the US oil patch - or as the Dallas Fed themselves noted, businesses are faltering under increasing uncertainty. So investors are shifting to risk-free options. There was a large two year US Treasury auction earlier today, one that was again well supported, It delivered a median yield of 4.13%, down from the 4.17% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Singapore's CPI inflation rate fell to 1.2% in January from a slightly revised 1.5% in the prior month. This was well below analyst expectations of 2.2% and is the lowest level in four years. (In between, it peaked at 7.5% in September 2022, but it has been falling since.) Lower food prices were a key contributor in this January result. Locally, we should probably note that the annual maintenance of the Cook Strait power cable has been putting huge pressure on an already stretched power supply. There was a very wide divergence in pricing between the Islands yesterday (very high in the South Island in the early afternoon) and a "low residual notice" was issued. (H/T TR.) The UST 10yr yield is at 4.41%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2942/oz and up +US$7 from yesterday. Oil prices are up less than +50 USc at just under US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2, and up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,565 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that 100 days of mayhem has not only killed the global leadership position of the US, Americans themselves (consumers and business) are reacting by turning sharply defensive. The US dollar is under pressure, Wall Street is down sharply, and benchmark bond yields are dropping hard. However, before we get into that, the week ahead will bring a relatively light set of data. In the US it will mostly be about durable goods orders in January, a second revision for the US Q4-2024 GDP, and personal income & spending updates. Elsewhere India and Canada will also update their GDP and Australia will release its CPI data. There will be business and consumer confidence data for New Zealand at the end of the week too. Over the weekend, the US February PMI shows that output growth is faltering and payrolls are declining, as optimism slumped as costs rise. Their services sector is now contracting and at a 2 year low, their factory sector is expanding however but only back to its mid-2024 levels. And it isn't any better for American consumers. The final survey results for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment tracking have come in weaker than the 'flash' result which indicated a sharpish turn lower. In fact it is now -10% weaker than in January, -16% weaker than a year ago. American consumers are spooked. One reason is that they see higher inflation ahead. The final reading for this indicates consumer prices are expected to be +3.5% higher in a year, a worsening of the 'flash' February result we reported earlier of +3.3%. January existing home sales slumped nearly -5% too from December, although they were up slightly from the same month a year ago. But the year-on-year improvement is being whittled back. And new homes are likely to get more expensive in the US with global tariffs to be imposed on softwood timber . Now more of Trump's billionaire backers are having second thoughts about what they funded. And about-to-retire Warren Buffet issued his shareholder letter over the weekend, with some clear criticisms of Trump and his tax-avoiding accomplices. Buffet said paying taxes is patriotic and essential for a functioning society, and his companies paid US$26.8 bln in 2024, alone 5% of all corporate taxes in the US - and far more than all the tech companies combined. Trump is going into bat to ensure those tech companies don't have to pay any taxes in the foreign companies they operate in. In Canada retail sales volumes were up +2.5% in December, up +3.9% in value terms from a year ago. This is actually quite an impressive result. This will be an interesting metric to watch in future given the nationwide push by Canadians to shift away from buying American-made products in protest at the insults launched by the US President. In Japan, they finally have inflation, real inflation this time. It climbed to 4.0% in January from 3.6% in the prior month, which is their highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months up 7.8%, with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. No doubt their central bank will react to this sharper than expected move. Despite that, the Japanese February PMIs show improvements in activity in both their services and factory sectors, with their services sector expanding at a healthy rate for a developed economy, and their factory sector contracting less. India is still expanding fast. Their February PMIs show a better-than-January rise for their services sector, and a weaker-than-January expansion for their factory sector. Both expansions are the envy of most other countries, even if it is from a low base. The EU PMI survey for February recorded a small expansion, but it also records their fastest input cost inflation since April 2023. The overall expansion recorded is largely due a recovery in the German factory sector . And speaking of Germany, they have been voting in federal elections this weekend. Counting is underway and it seems no party won a majority. The conservative CDU won the largest boc and the far-right AfD came in second according to exit polling. But as all other parties have declared they won't work with the revivalist Nazi party, they are in for a long negotiation period trying to form an MMP government. A grand coalition remains a possibility. In Australia, who will probably go to the polls themselves in May, their February PMIs report an improving economic activity situation, with their services activity at a six month high, and their factory PMI at a 27 month high. However, to be fair, neither levels are particularly strong compared to other countries. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.43%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2935/oz and down -US$3 from Saturday. Oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$74.50/bbl. These markets are looking at a future of lower demand and higher output and inventories. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.1, and down -10 bps from Saturday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,618 and down -1.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.7%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
1 Hints of a stagflation future noticed by financial markets 6:00
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Afspil senere Afspil senere Lister Like LikedKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that while Trump is playing Putin's puppet, his lieutenants are setting the stage for a new global bout of stagflation - higher tariff-induced costs for little or no economic expansion. Wall Street is starting to price in what is increasingly likely to lie ahead. The USD fell. US jobless claims came in lower last week than the week before, with all the decrease accounted for by seasonal factors. Markets had expected an even lower level from those seasonal factors, so this result was a disappointment. There are now 2.2 mln people on these benefits, a rise, when a season decrease was expected. For most of 20025 this level has been tracking higher than in 2024. The regional Philly Fed factory survey expanded in February, but at far less a rate than in January. A fall-off in the new order component explains most of the change. Meanwhile, the Conference Board tracking of leading index metrics shows a larger fall-off than expected and a negative outlook. Also lower (than a month ago) is the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker. And we should also probably note the -6% fall in the Walmart share price overnight. It is dawning on markets that the new public policy settings are fertile ground for stagflation - inflation with no real growth. Retailers like Walmart are in the front line of that, and their latest outlook really disappointed markets even as they reported improved current results. Canadian producer prices rose rather sharply in January from December, and were +5.8% higher than year-ago levels. To be fair, some of this is base effect (January 2024 fell -3%) but the recent trend is higher too. Taiwanese export orders fell in January from December and came in -3% below year-ago levels. Analysts had expected them to hold at last year's level. But to be fair, they did rise in local currency; it was the USD change that showed them dragging. In the EU, the consumer mood is improving, largely around the expectation that ECB interest rate cuts will continue. Their sentiment tracking shows it at its best level in four months and this survey came in much better than observers were expecting. But despite all that, it is still net negative as it has been 'forever'. China kept its February Loan Prime Rates unchanged at their record low levels. In Australia, their employed workforce grew by +44,000 in January, above what was expected (+20,000), but less than the December gain (+60,000). But there was a virtuous twist to the January levels with a shift to full-time roles, with +54,000 more of them, and part-time roles shrank -10,000. Average weekly earnings rose +4.6% from a year ago. But high tax rates and inflation at 3.0% will mean most workers felt they just stayed even. (For perspective the NZ jobless rate is 5.1%.) And staying in Australia, the SA State Government and the Federal Government have "seized control" of the Whyalla steelworks - essentially nationalising it. And they are having to tip in AU$2.5 bln to keep it afloat. Its British owner has had a very chequered history. And we should probably note that key Aussie pillar bank NAB has seen its share price fall -15% in a week. CBA is down -6.5%, Westpac is down -11% and ANZ is down -8.0% over the same period. Aussie bank shares are being re-rated lower, and because they are very widely held in Aussie superannuation and KiwiSaver portfolio's savers will notice. Container shipping freight rates fell -10% last week as the puff goes out of global trade, especially on trans-Pacific routes. These overall rates are now -26% lower than year-ago levels, even if they are still double pre-pandemic levels. But with weak trade out of China, these rates will likely fall much further, and quite quickly. Although they remain historically low, bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% last week, although remain -48% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2943/oz and up +US$15 from yesterday, and again close to its all-time high of US$2955/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc at just under US$73/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is unchanged at US$76.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.6 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2, but unchanged from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,763 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.4%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.…
1 American instability takes another turn 5:14
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Afspil senere Afspil senere Lister Like Likedforeign investors, both friends an foes, are quitting their exposure to the new Russified US. But first up, the Redbook tracking of American retail sales shows they were up +6.3% last week from the same week a year go. This is a heady gain outside the seasonal shopping windows. Buyers may be trying to insulate themselves ahead of the inflation that will flow from impending tariffs. Last week's gain was twice what it was a year ago, and also higher than the same week two years ago. Some of this defensive "doom spending" is being done with higher credit card debt . They aren't spending on new housing. American housing starts slumped -9.8% in January from the prior month and are also lower year-on-year. The rise we noted in December was an outlier over the past year, not sustained. And they aren't spending on switching houses either. Mortgage applications fell by -6.6% last week from the previous week, the sharpest decline so far this year. Mortgage interest rates are staying close to the 7% mark - plus there is rising uncertainty over the future status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The new Administration wants to sell these two mortgage infrastructure behemoths to their billionaire supporters. Borrowers supported by such loans, common in the US, may be facinging an unwelcome future surprise. American 30 year fixed mortgages, only possible because of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have an uncertain future. There was a well-supported, but relatively small US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and that brought a yield of 4.77%, down -9 bps from the median yield of 4.86% at the equivalent auction a month ago. Foreign holdings of US Treasury paper is falling . December data was released overnight, showing total holdings are now US$8.5 tln, down from US$8.6 tln just before the election. Japan, the largest holder and only one holding more than US$1 tln, cut its exposure -5% from a year ago. China cut theirs -7% to its lowest level in more than 15 years. And the more the US President talks up Russian propaganda points, the more unstable this is likely to become. The locals are worried . Across the Pacific, Japan's core machinery orders fell -1.2% month-on-month in December, the worst reading in four months. The latest reading also reversed from a +3.4% rise in November. Markets had expected a slight +0.1% gain. China’s new house prices in 70 cities fell -5.0% year-on-year in January, but that was an easing from a -5.3% drop in the previous month. It was also the smallest decline since last July. But prices in icon cities like Beijing are falling faster now. However Shanghai was an exception with prices there rising. In Indonesia, as expected their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% . Inflation is under control there (under 1%) and their currency is stable, still at the same level it was in mid 2024. In the UK, inflation is rising, hitting 3.0% in January , up from 2.5% in December in a jump that wasn't expected. A year ago it ran at 4.0%, so a fall from then. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.56%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +26 bps. Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +16 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is also steeper at +23 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today over 4.58% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.69% and down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now over 4.69%, up another +3 bps from yesterday. Wall Street is marginally lower in its Wednesday trade. Overnight European markets all fell ranging from Frankfurt's -1.8% to London's -0.6%. Tokyo ended its Wednesday trade down -0.3%. Hong Kong was down -0.1%. Shanghai however rose +0.8%. Singapore ended up +0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday trade down another -0.7%, whereas the NZX50 ended down only -0.1%. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2928/oz and down -US$3 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$76.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2, and up +30 bps from this time yesterday, also partly helped by a gain against the yen. The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,136 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.…
1 David Mahon: China, a country 'full of DeepSeeks,' now sees NZ as 'a country of diplomatic infidelity' 37:58
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Afspil senere Afspil senere Lister Like LikedPrime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China, Beijing-based New Zealander David Mahon says. But he says China's recently announced strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, through which NZ was kept in the dark, shouldn't be viewed as insult to, or provocation of, NZ. Mahon, who is Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management and has lived in China since 1984, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast . Luxon, who before the 2023 election said achieving a free trade agreement with India would be a major strategic priority for a National government, is set to visit India next month. He's yet to visit China as Prime Minister, but is expected to do so this year. "If the Prime Minister had gone to China and conferred upon it as a great power the respect it deserved in the last year or so of his tenure, it'd be fine. But it's almost a statement of a diplomatic insult not going to China before going to India," Mahon said. He said potentially the prospects for NZ products in China over the next two to three years are very good, with China retaining a great need for protein, wanting to buy seafood, and NZ logs still selling reasonably well. However, Mahon suggested after a good relationship with China for many years, highlighted by the 2008 Free Trade Agreement (FTA), NZ is now seen as "a country of diplomatic infidelity." "And for most of my life, we've been the opposite of that. Under Helen Clark, John Key, Jim Bolger, we were the country that was respected. Now people are scratching their heads and saying, what's wrong with New Zealand? It seems to have lost its sincerity, its sense of loyalty." The recent signing of a China-Cook Islands comprehensive strategic partnership, which the NZ Government was kept in the dark over, shouldn't be viewed by NZ as an insult or provocation from China, Mahon said. The Cook Islands is a self-governing state in ‘free association’ with NZ with its citizens having NZ passports. "...what China is determined to do is to make sure that it retains this relationship with New Zealand, although New Zealand is struggling in many ways to hold up its end." "We shouldn't be too peevish that they [the Cook Islands] want to do a deal with someone with more money than us," Mahon said. "In the end, China is going to invest throughout the Pacific, where it can. Part of it is that it wants to express its influence." The Cook Islands-China agreement reportedly includes plans for co-operation on seabed mining, the establishment of diplomatic missions and preferential treatment in regional and multi-lateral forums, but excludes security ties. An attraction of the Cook Islands deal for China will "definitely" be minerals, Mahon said. "If you go back to the technological revolution, which is really what's occurring in Chinese manufacturing, they need these minerals very much," said Mahon. "China is actually very poor in resources." 'China is full of Deep Seeks' Meanwhile, Mahon said recent surprise around Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company Deep Seek highlights westerners taking their eye off China and its burgeoning technology sector. "China's full of Deep Seeks. There are companies in China, the names of which we just have never heard of, that are about to change major sectors that influence our lives." So Deep Seek is like the first, I don't want to say shot across the bows because it makes a sort of military metaphor, but it is a flare, a signal." "This is what China's been focused on in the last 10 years. Getting away from making nylon socks and teddy bears and cheap stuff and making really good technology, really sophisticated technology. And so this is what's going to come out of China now in waves and make all our lives cheaper in terms of buying stuff that's important to us," said Mahon. "And it's going to be a major challenge to the major tech companies of the West, creating the kind of competition that markets run on. Innovation's driven by it. So this should be perceived as a positive thing." In the podcast audio Mahon talks about these issues in more detail, plus this week's meeting between President Xi Jinping and Chinese business leaders, the "shameful scandal" of NZ immigration and visas "violating the spirit" of the FTA, China's relationship with the United States in the time of Donald Trump's second presidency, tariffs, trade war, and the "ghastly concept" of potential military conflict between China and the US, possibly over Taiwan. "China doesn't want a war. China doesn't want to invade Taiwan. If China were to invade Taiwan, it would be out of the global financial system within hours. China within six months would face a massive economic crisis," he said. * You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here .…
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen. First up today, there was another dairy auction , and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD. Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently. In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile. But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation. In Canada they reported January CPI inflation , and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut. We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too. The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1% , much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours. The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%. Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news today will be dominated by the RBA rate review, especially as US financial markets are on holiday (Presidents Day). Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in January from December and came in +3.7% higher than year ago levels. Montreal and Vancouver demand drove the increases. Across the Pacific, the Japanese economy continues its good rebound with their growth rate beating estimates, and by quite a bit. Japan’s GDP grew by +0.7% qoq in Q4-2024 , accelerating from an upwardly revised +0.4% expansion in Q3. This marked the third consecutive quarterly growth, on the back of a strong rebound in business investment. Year on year it is up +2.8% which was very much better than the +1.0% expected. This is very good for Japan, who has struggled to expand for a long time. And don't forget this is the world's fourth largest economy. (Japan is als one of those economies that looks better in PPP terms.) Singapore's exports actually fell in January and by -3.3% - and that was much more than the -0.3% dip expected. Chinese new vehicle sales slipped in January from December. Not only was it the usual seasonal dip, it was more than expected, and the year-on-year change also dipped slightly which is not something we have seen since the pandemic. It was a similar story for Indian exports , which fell in January from December, to be -1.3% lower than the same month a year earlier. India is not a powerhouse exporter, with theirs only about 10% of China's, and less than Taiwan. They export at about the same level as Australia and Vietnam. Those weak exports meant its trade deficit widened. At 4:30pm we will get the latest update to the RBA's cash rate target. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 4.10% but you have to say the conviction in the market is not high. All three possibilities are still live; a cut, no change, or even a hike given their highish inflation levels. We will know soon enough. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.49%, up +1 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2898/oz and up +US$15 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is unchanged at US$75/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2, and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,470 and down another -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.0%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the messy international outlook continues but so far the changes are more in prospect than real. First however, this will be a big week of data and policy releases. Not only will Australia review its policy rate tomorrow (a -25 bps cut is anticipated taking their cash rate target to 4.10%), our own RBNZ has its first monetary policy review of 2025 and it is widely expected they will deliver a -50 bps cut to 3.75%. China also reviews rates this week on Thursday, but no change is expected from them. On Wednesday, there is another full dairy auction. Canada and Japan will release January CPI data. And there will be many January PMI releases this week. In data out over the weekend from China, banks lent a record +¥5.22 tln in new loans in January , far above the +¥990 bln in December and easily beating forecasts of +¥800 bln. It is a spectacular show of support by banks for the push by Beijing to juice up its economy via more debt. Foreign direct investment in China plunged -99% over the past three years, Chinese government data shows, as their economic slowdown and concerns about their 'everything is national security' approach drove investors away. China only recorded a net inflow in 2024 of +US$4.5 bln and that is their lowest in more than 30 years. In two of the four quarters of 2024 there was in fact a net outflow. Up from +1.8% in 2023, Singapore's economy grew +4.4% in 2024 on the back of stronger-than-expected rebounds in exports and tourism. This was an upward revision from the preliminary +4.0% rate reported by them earlier. By itself, Singapore's Q4 rose at a +5.0% rate. Malaysia downgraded its growth in its Q4-2024 update to +5.0% from a year ago. This was due to weak progress in Q4 from Q3. In the US, retail sales were +4.2% higher in January from a year ago, a slightly slower pace than in December (+4.4%). This official data backs up the Redbook survey we report weekly. But we should note that the good January data came despite a sharpish fall-off in car sales in the month. That fall-off contributed to seasonally adjusted retreat in January from December and one that was notably more than expected. Business inventory data out for December actually shows lower levels, and their inventory-to-sales ratio improved unexpectedly. This shift might be due to public-policy uncertainty around tariffs. With inventories lower than expected, it therefore won't be a surprise to know that US industrial production in January rose on a year-on-year basis, and by more than expected. But the January rise from December wasn't as strong. But at least it was a rise It is Presidents Day in the US on Monday (tomorrow NZT), a Federal holiday, but only inconsistently observed by business and many states. Across the border, Canada said its manufacturing sales rose, and for a third consecutive month in December. Canada also released its Q4-2024 senior loan officer survey which revealed a sharpish tightening in credit conditions in the period. The UST 10yr yield is at 4.48%, unchanged from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2882/oz and down -US$6 from Saturday. Oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$70.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$75/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.3, unchanged from Saturday but its highest since Christmas Eve. The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,094 and down -1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.6%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.…
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